Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

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Number of potential blarcamesine users.

For some future Anavex revenues calculations some numbers have to be used. One of the first ones is the total number of potential individuals who will be taking blarcamesine.

In today’s Anavex presentation it was claimed that in the Americas, in 2015, 9.4 million people were living with dementia; in Europe 10.5 million. To be conservative, I’ll presume there will be 6 million Americans and 6 million Europeans taking blarcamesine in, say, 2024; 12 million in the developed world.

Do your own revenue estimations. You will need to also presume some daily cost of blarcamesine. I’ll presume a day’s dose will cost the patient (well, his insurance company or government) $10. For each patient that would be a yearly cost of $3650. For Anavex that would be gross annual revenues of $3650 x 12 million: $43,800,000,000 ($43.8 billion).

I’ll presume that when that happens there will be one hundred million outstanding AVXL shares. The $43.8 billion of annual gross revenues divided up among those shares would be $438 per share.

Take it from there; estimate the value of a share of AVXL a few years out.

But personally I anticipate that blarcamesine (or Anavex 3-71) will eventually be rather universally prescribed in late middle age (45?) as a general geriatric disease prophylactic, taken by hundreds of millions (at say, $5/day). Count the multitude of zeros in those calculations.