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In the U.S. New York City is certainly where you'd expect the condition to be the worse, but in other places in the world, like Tokyo, similar conditions exist, but I don't believe the infection was nearly as severe. It's been about 40 years since the last time I was there, but even back then people wearing masks was common. As I remember it, their rail system didn't operate after a certain hour of the evening, and I suspect they cleaned and perhaps sanitize the system overnight. My point is, they were better prepared because they've been doing these things for years, while people here still fight putting on a mask.
I don't want to wear a mask for the rest of my life, but after stem cells I wore one whenever I was in places where many people could be found, if the mask was disposable, I found I could poke a straw thru it to drink without removing it. It may be a nuisance, but it should be one that we can live with for awhile in order for more people to live. I would hope that we as a country learn to approach masks at least the way the Japanese did years ago, if they thought they might be infectious, they wore a mask. It may not stop all disease spread, but it greatly reduces it. Certainly, if you're by yourself, it's unnecessary, but in close proximity to others we really need to get used to wearing them. Sadly in the case of covid-19, you can feel fine and still have it, and can be spreading it, so all should wear masks anytime you're not alone or with those who you share your living space.
I suspect that if back in February we'd have adopted wearing masks, perhaps half of those who've passed on would never have been infected. I look forward to when we have a vaccine, and can lessen the use of the mask, but we still should use it when we're the one who don't feel well if we're going out in that condition.
Gary
It seems to me that PSTI has a relationship with Thermo Fisher who was supposed to be building capacity, does anyone know how far they may have come.
As for the need, if proven in ventilator cases I've got to believe it will be given to people who are in better shape, hopefully preventing the needs for ventilators. The final step would be giving it to people just diagnosed with pneumonia to hopefully thwart it, never requiring hospitalization at all. The numbers naturally expand dramatically as millions annually develop pneumonia, most never requiring hospitalization.
Certainly the cost per patient will be higher than current treatment given at the onset of pneumonia, but if hospital stays and deaths is largely eliminated, the net cost should be substantially lower. I believe they'll see that it's wise to make this the SOC for treating pneumonia regardless of the source, but it will take time to reach that conclusion.
As I understand it, the current treatment for patients on ventilators involves many injections into muscles, I'm uncertain of precisely where. I believe they're not just covering the lungs, but other organs that coronavirus has been determined to attack by the time patient are on ventilator. This brings up the question about whether treatment might be diminished if intervention came earlier. It also brings up the question if treatment that still involved several shots in specific muscles is something nurses in most Doctors office, or the Doctor's themselves could administer, or if people would be sent to specialists on the determination they had pneumonia and the drug should be administered.
As I understand it, Doctors currently are administering the treatment to patients on ventilators, but I can't remember the last time I was given a shot by a Dr. Nurses have always done it for the Doctors I've been to, and even the administration of my stem cells was done by a nurse, no Dr. was in attendance at the time, they were just slowly introduced through my Hickman catheter. I guess the question is, does the placement of the drug require the precision only a specialist could provide, perhaps using ultrasound, or could any knowledgeable nurse be told these are the muscle groups that need to be injected, and easily be able to do it.
Regardless of how it must be done, and the pain that might be experienced by the patient in doing it, or mitigated by anesthetics, it's a treatment I believe most pneumonia patients would want if it greatly shortened the time to a cure and diminished the likelihood of it worsening and possibly becoming life threatening. If I'm correct about that, sales of the drug for only pneumonia should go into double digit billions or more.
Gary
If you read the attached article, Fauci was fighting for greater funds and Trump answered by eliminating the pandemic agency. Fauci recognizes the fact that biological problems are not that unusual, but this one is certainly one of the worst. The intent of funding Wuhan is to learn how to minimize or prevent a problem, but clearly it got out of hand, whether the lab had any responsibility for it, or not.
Of course there are those who just believe that Fauci was tired of not getting air time, I'm happy to see him speaking out, even though his hands are somewhat tied by Trump.
Gary
I don't believe that will be the case. The company clearly indicated they took covid-19 into consideration when they gave us their estimate, but equally important, while our efforts have been far less than perfect, it most State's we've lowered the curve sufficiently to not completely overwhelm our hospital capabilities. Now in many State's they're once again permitting optional procedures to be done. In short, Doctors can now be doing more of what's normal for them, they all aren't needed for covid-19 patients.
I believe most clinicians can once again practice as clinicians. No doubt, many Doctors are still tied up with Covid-19 patients, but I believe clinical work will still be permitted to advance, and data gathering to complete trials should be permitted to be carried out.
I think that LP would have given herself some wiggle room based on when the earliest the work could be done, I'd not be surprised if we saw TLD a week or so before most anticipate it, rather than late. While I believe we're far from over this pandemic, and it may get worse by Fall, I do believe that some degree of normalcy will return. I really question if stadiums and auditoriums can be filled, but I suspect sports, perhaps with limited or no fans will return, athletes will be tested frequently, but be permitted to play for the cameras. Restaurants will reopen, with far less seating, and may need to be subsidized for some time, but it will be done to keep them in business, many will fail. In short, we'll be in a different sort of normalcy, and we'll remain there until we either have a vaccine, or a therapeutic that greatly reduces the risk. On the therapeutic front I'm happy that PLX-PAD is going into clinical testing, it's worked anecdotally on several ventilator patients, and I believe it could be one of potentially a few stem cell based drugs that could be a game changer.
I really can't say that even a decade from now we won't still be getting over this pandemic.
Gary
I wouldn't be surprised if the Annual Report comes out after the bell today. Why? The good news will be that it's out. The bad news is that last year was not a banner year for the company.
My first purchase came the end of last year, it was at just under $.007 a share. I really didn't look at the entire year, I know it had been somewhat lower, but also substantially higher, so it didn't end the year on great news.
For those, like myself, who learned of the company at the end of the year, it didn't take me long to see the company was positioned in the right place, and it's been great since then. I believe it's just getting started. This time next year for every one who's invested today there will be somewhere between 10 and 100 new investors who've either gotten in, or are looking to.
If the price approaches my extreme highs for the year, over $5, a tremendous number of shares, perhaps over 50% of the shares will be owned by Institutions. That means that many here today won't be then, and my only advice would be, keep some shares for future growth. Small investors like ourselves generally make the greatest percentage gains, but after huge percentages, we let Institutions buy our shares, and they make the greatest dollar gains. Riding a stock from a penny to a dollar is a great gain, but the institution that buys those shares for a dollar, and still holds them when they're $10 has made a lot more money, though only 10% of the gain achieved by those who held from $.01 to $1.00. When it's $1, ask yourself if there is a reason it won't go to $5, and when it's dollar $5, ask yourself if $10 is probable. Sell some if you need some money, or consider borrowing on margin.
I've had many penny stocks that are worthless, but it only takes one that does great things to make you wealthy. I believe this for many will be that one.
Gary
The financials due in the near future won't look great, but I don't believe that matters, what matters is that they are out. I believe that at least many potential investors are waiting for the issuance of the Annual Report and first quarter data. Hopefully within the contents some indication of what's forecast for the future will be included, but clearly in spite of great news from the company, the price is being held back.
I really look forward to third quarter results, as well as how next years Annual Report looks, by then it's possible we'll be selling for 100 times the current price, though that's probably a little high, less than 20 times would put us over $1, and I certainly believe that should happen. Nothing can be certain, but I believe we're in one of the fastest growing companies in the world.
Gary
Their last communication about it indicated they continue to treat new patients under compassionate use. I would encourage the family of anyone who had a relative going on a ventilator to try for compassionate use treatment. I say the family because the patient on ventilator is put into an induced coma as I understand it, so they can't make the decision. The family, and whatever Doctor is taking the lead is who need to apply for compassionate use, as I understand it.
I wish we had some knowledge of just how much PLX-PAD is already in cryogenic storage worldwide. I was once of the belief that it was substantial, but don't know that's true. At 20,000 doses from a single placenta, it doesn't sound like all that many placenta's would be needed to cover all on ventilators, currently under 20K for the U.S. but the source doesn't account for patients coming off, and others going on. Here's a link at where I found it.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
No doubt, the number worldwide would be a good size multiple, but if a single vial will do a patient, it would seem like the output from under a dozen placenta's could provide the needed doses. I believe the bigger number would be if the drug were given prior to going on ventilator, to hopefully prevent the need for a ventilator at all, and probably prevent a lot of organ damage. Clearly that number would be higher, but once pneumonia was seen, it might greatly reduce hospitalization if it could be given at that point. Far more drug would be needed, but overall healthcare costs should drop dramatically as many could completely avoid hospitalization completely.
Gary
I'm frankly saddened by those putting down Dr. Fauci.
Does anyone think the Chinese, or any other labs that Fauci has helped to fund wouldn't be open without the funds from the U.S. Sure, it's possible they'd be smaller, but they'd also be much more secretive as by providing some of the funding we're able to work collaboratively with those working in the lab. There is little doubt that mistakes can be made in such labs, and in some cases it's happened in labs here as well. What I believe is more important is knowing what's happening in similar labs all over the world, and that's something we only learn by working with them.
We are not the only scientist in the world, highly qualified scientists can be found all over the planet. Sadly, when it came to things like the test kits for coronavirus, we failed to build on what others had done, choosing to develop our own test rather than starting with the most successful tests elsewhere. Our initial effort was a complete bust, and we fought letting independent labs creating their own, but finally succumbed to it. Now we have all sorts of testing, some takes 5 minutes, some take 5 days or more, most people are still not being tested.
If we had our act together deaths and infected numbers would be down dramatically, but in shutting down we had leadership who failed to set a proper example. Does he stay away from others, wear a mask, advice people not to open until criteria's been met, NO, he encourages opening up, even though numbers are growing, and against the advice of his scientific advisors. He has documents prepared by Govt. Agencies intended to regulate industries watered down so that infections in places like food processing go through the roof. It's sad, but we're served by a President who doesn't believe in the advice coming from scientists, unless he tells them what they're to say, and they obey his suggestion. The curve was supposed to come down dramatically before States opened up, but in many cases they're still rising, yet he's encouraging them to open up.
Don't get me wrong, I believe that if we took the guidance seriously, we could be more open, we actually could have not closed certain things that we did. With proper distancing and masks, I don't know that golf courses couldn't have been open, but unless people were living together, only one person could ride on a golf cart. Likewise, beaches, even swimming pools with proper spacing and outdoor showers. Could you have a golf tournament, sure, but no fans, just golfers and officials all maintaining proper distancing. Could people play tennis, that too could probably be done safely, again, no fans in tournament play. Contact sports like football, basketball, baseball, perhaps with a lot of testing, and again no fans. Could we go to movies, theaters, etc, doubtful even in masks unless a small fraction of the seats were filled.
What's sad is, people with freedom are not choosing to do what's right. Too many people on the beach, people not wearing masks when the should, not maintaining distance when lined up to pick up food or drink from restaurants. I grant you, many are younger people, but if they won't take it seriously, the disease will spread to parents, grandparents, etc, those at much greater risk. The Chinese did listen, and they've largely recovered, certainly they have a much more oppressive Govt. but perhaps this was one time our Govt. should have been more oppressive. We'll need to throw a lot more money at the people before this is over as so many businesses will be no more.
Gary
I would hope that shortly the trial will show up in the clinical trials database and include all the hospitals that are participating. I would suspect that if results are what we expect, they won't require a Phase 3, but it's possible they'd ask to expand the size of the Phase 2, adding patients at what's determined to be the most effective dose, and providing the drug to all who're added.
Gary
I believe that L.P. took that into consideration when she provided the date she did. Best I can tell, most states are opening up well before reaching the guidelines provided by the Govt. experts, like Dr. Fauci, but clearly not before the President wanted.
As for experts, you can find experts who'll say practically anything, like man has no influence on climate change, it's just that for each one you find, there are 99 or more who were educated in schools every bit as good as the one who will say otherwise.
China is where this all started, I don't believe all their numbers, but it's pretty clear that when they got serious about it they brought the curve down very quickly. Their population is many times ours, yet we have more who've been infected and probably more who've passed away.
I've really hardly been out of the house, but my daughter has, and down in Venice it was clear that people weren't either maintaining proper distancing, nor were most wearing masks. California to date has maintained a reasonable balance, I just hope we're not opening up too soon. No doubt the cost of staying closed is a drag on the economy, but if we're forced to shut down again it will be far worse.
What's rather interesting is that for the most part the Blue States traditionally pay more into the Federal Govt than they receive, while the Red States generally pull more out. Certainly part of the problem is the greater density population is generally in the Blue States, making them a greater problem in a pandemic, but regardless, to some degree all the States need funding or essential services will be terminated or greatly reduced. A Govt. that can put billions into the hands of what previously were some of the wealthiest corporations in the world must also put billions into the States that are commensurate with the losses they're suffering.
I wish that this wasn't the case, but it is, and the only way the economy will come back to what it was before is Govt. funding to put all sorts of people back in business.
Gary
emit,
I agree they're dosing many under compassionate use, I just wish the regulators would consider the results with these people without a formal trial. Perhaps I'm wrong and some countries will look at such results, I seriously doubt the U.S. will be one of them.
If the company goes to far in making a case for it's anecdotal evidence, it can anger the FDA making it even harder for themselves. We need to get the formal trial started, then hopefully it won't take that long to be completed.
Gary
Thanks,
My treatment at City of Hope has been excellent, in my case, while there were some complications, I don't believe they had to do anything too extreme. I have frequently spoken with people there who truly are miracles. Most of these people are cancer free now, and we just happen to chat either at the reunion, or when we have appointments the same day, in their case it's the once a year they come in. The extremes that COH will go to for patients is absolutely amazing, as a research hospital they're willing to do a personalized drug if they believe it has a chance when all else has failed. I've met people who were told they had a month or less to live a quarter century ago, and once ran into one of the first to ever have a bone marrow transplant there.
I'm sure there are other great cancer hospitals, I doubt if any will go further for the patient, though some may go as far.
Gary
I went to the IRS and gave them the routing and account number as we changed it. None of the local people I've asked have received their payments either.
Teams like the Laker's were funded as small business, but have given the money back after it was made public, but people who really have small businesses are seeing very little.
I saw an expert at getting farms and ranches the most possible, it seems that the same amount can go to each owner. This expert has had properties owned by hundreds, many who don't live or work anywhere near the property. We have a very sick system, it needs to be overhauled, people are putting their lives at risk as if they don't put their businesses back in operation, they'll lose the business as the loans haven't come through.
I'm of the belief that in reopening, many businesses will still fail as customers are scarce due to fear. Restaurants with 25% of their normal seating will probably not survive without some sort of subsidy, even at 50% it will be tough. While higher prices might compensate for less seating, with fewer people working it's hard to say if enough people will be available to pay the higher price.
I miss eating out, but even when they reopen, being elderly and immune compromised I suspect that we'll be ordering in, as we did tonight, when we choose not to do home cooking. I've cut my own hair, it looks okay. I've spoken to Doctors from home, rather than going to their office, I suspect they can still bill the insurance for the visit. Much I'd normally go to the market or Costco for I now do on line, I actually think I snared a toilet paper package from Costco, but it's yet to be delivered. It's sad, but we now look at things like toilet paper and paper towels as a big victory when they're available on line, of course they're limited to one.
It's been said that coronavirus was here much earlier than ever suspected. Had we been on guard then, perhaps it could have been held down, but with no tests, it didn't look different from the normal flu, so it was never diagnosed. There are probably somewhere between 5 and 10 times the number actually diagnose, many who won't get that sick and may only know they got it if the get a blood test. Sadly such people may very well infect others who pay the ultimate price. This whole saga won't be over until we have a good vaccine, but may be mitigated with better therapies, but many will still die. It's sad, but we had a President who ignored warnings over nearly two months, and now he's encouraging opening up the company before guidelines laid out by his administration are nowhere near being met. We could have been down to very few with the disease by June, but instead I have serious doubts that football will begin in September, at least not with fans, while in September almost no one would have the disease, though it may have come back in the Fall. I believe the rush to reopen the country will have it closed much longer in the long run, and have many more deaths.
Gary
I'm the same way, a buy and hold investor. I believe if we have to wait for CLI results, that too will warrant a billion dollar market cap, or more.
Frankly, I believe we're just barely seeing the benefits PLX-PAD can achieve, as it's benefits are better understood, I believe they'll try it in many organs, including the heart, where it will be found that placental stem cells simply sense that something needs to be fixed, and go about fixing it.
I certainly can say how they work. If it weren't for coronavirus I'd be attending my 5th BMT reunion at City of Hope, perhaps they'll have it later this year if conditions permit. I mention the BMT because back when they first did this, it was bone marrow being transplanted, it was stem cells doing the work, but it was called a bone marrow transplant. They still refer to the reunion as BMT, if I remember correctly this will be the 44th year that they're doing it. Over all those years they've learned much about stem cells, yet I believe we have far more to learn about them, and placental cells will prove to be the most valuable of all.
Gary
I admit, I haven't followed the company for years, give them zero credibility. I considered Multikine to be a cure in search of a disease, and perhaps this time they hit it. If they did, and you're invested and do well, congratulations, I've just seen them fail so many times that I can't consider ever investing again, but I did once, when they were after AIDS, and the symbol was HIV.
There is little doubt in my mind that NWBO's trial results will show that DCVax-L is approvable, and I believe it will be approved if not by all the regulators, by some of them. Our FDA could be a holdout that want's additional trials run. People living sometimes means little to them if some bizarre figure they want fails to be met. I can't say how many drugs I've seen approved by them after additional trials were run, and cumulatively additional billions were spent on drugs I was certain would be approve, and in many cases were approved elsewhere. Cutting the costs of running drug trials would be the first step I'd take at reducing the costs of drugs, and lowering the cost of healthcare.
Gary
If killing people is the goal, Sweden has chosen it, and so is Trump by encouraging opening back up before the curve is dramatically dropping. Certainly his economy is ruined, but it didn't need to be, the money that was supposed to go to all the small businesses went mostly to the wealthy, who never turn down free money.
As for the money going to all of us who aren't over a certain income level, an economist friend who knows people all over the country made an observation based on people he's spoken with. It seems the checks are going first to State's that Trump needs to win, or are viewed to be Red States. I don't know anyone here in California who's gotten one yet, but I did go to IRS.gov and was told I qualify. That money was promised over a month ago, they indicated it would be dispensed in days, but I guess that was only if you live in a Red State.
We're no where near the population of many countries in the world that are fighting coronavirus, yet we have the most deaths, most people infected, is that what Trump takes as being Number One.
Gary
I'll predict that once again Multikine will fail, but the company will announce that without a doubt it will cure covid-19 and they'll be going into trials for it. It's the pattern the company has taken perhaps a dozen or more times in the past 20 or so years, always with Multikine, regardless of what they're trying to cure.
Gary
I would expect them to announce the trial within 2 weeks. I would hope that the detail of the trial will be available in the clinical trial database. It will be interesting to see all the sites that will initially be involved, hopefully additional sites will be added as the trial progresses so other areas can gain access to the drug.
I would hope that the entire trial can be completed in a couple months.
Gary
I agree the Pinks are an OTC, but I believe that all would agree it's better to be on the general OTC than specifically on the Pinks. As for ownership of the AMEX, I knew it was a major exchange and was apparently wrong about it being the Nasdaq, my point is that it would be a step up from the OTC that could be achievable sooner.
It's one thing to do a small R/S to stay on an exchange, while I don't like it, I can understand that. I don't like using an R/S to get on a specific exchange, not for a company that's growing and can reach it in time by letting it just continue to grow.
PCTL is not the only one producing HOCL, but it is the one that has a system that's patented, and best serves hospitals and other facilities. I believe a decade from now it could very well be the sanitation system found in most hospitals all over the world. What would that do to the share price, I believe triple digits are possible, even with a billion or more shares outstanding. The U.K. is the first indication that such a thing could happen, but we'll see how long it takes before we see other similar indications.
I cannot say how many stories I've seen recently on sanitizing everything from aircraft to restaurants to hotels, etc. that all had one thing in common, they were using electrostatic sprayers. They didn't say they were spraying HOCL, but I don't believe there is anything else they'd want to use. Who did they get it from, we know there are other suppliers, so it's anyone's guess. We don't have to sell every gallon of HOCL being sold, but we're certainly selling lots of it, and preparing to sell a lot more. Many of the service companies we sell to buy in bulk and sell smaller quantities under their own label, so retail buyers can't be certain where it was manufactured, but I believe we have a substantial share of the market.
I recently heard the maker of Clorox products, etc is ramping up production because of increased demand. No doubt, HOCL isn't nearly as well known, or generally available, and bleach has a much greater shelf life, but while bleach may be fine for cleaning a house by an individual, it's not suited to electrostatic spraying, and the cost of hand application for a massive area just makes no sense when compared to electrostatic spraying, which also will be more certain of reaching everything.
Frankly if a small home generator of HOCL were available at a reasonable price, I believe it would be a huge seller as it's uses are practically unlimited. Just add salt, water and power and you'd have a fresh supply as needed, it's a product lots of people would go for.
Gary
I believe that a two months + or - a few days before TLD is anticipated, it's doing little to move the stock price. I believe as we creep up on the release, the stock will move up in anticipation of what is to come. How high? I certainly wouldn't be surprised to see $.25, perhaps as much as $.40. How high could it go after TLD is revealed, I suspect that will be determined by what's in the TLD.
I believe the real question we should ask ourselves is, what would a proper market cap be for the company post approval of the drug. I don't believe there is a simple answer for that, as by the time it occurs more information should be available for DCVax-Direct, and that could have a lot to say about properly evaluating the company. I do however believe that most her would agree the market cap would be in the billions, the question is, how many.
It's been said that L.P. would consider a buyout for $20 billion, if we assume the share count is nearly a billion shares at that point we're talking about $20 a share. No company in it's right mind would offer more than double what a company is selling for, and most buyouts come at substantially less than double the current share price. To me that's saying that L.P.'s goal is to reach a market cap of at least $10 billion, preferably more. That's certainly a possibility after approval, though I doubt it would happen immediately, unless simultaneously DCVax-Direct results were revealed suggest it too was headed for approval, perhaps for treatment of multiple cancers.
I believe the truth is that if DCVax-Direct proves to have benefits for multiple cancers a $20 billion buyout price would be a steal. Certainly DCVax-Direct may need to be closer to approval to add greater market value to the company, but how many investors would rather wait and see than sell out without properly valuing DCVax-Direct.
Gary
PCTL is trading on the Pinks right now, a move to the OTC is a move up, and one they should be able to make, probably after all financial filings are in and they're current on everything.
The Nasdaq is a big step up, requiring a $4 price, but I believe the AMEX which is owned by the Nasdaq has a $1 requirement. I believe that when we see third quarter results it may justify that $1 price, or more.
Frankly it's foolish to make the listing requirements based on stock price, rather than market cap. Because of the O/S when PCTL reaches $1 it will probably have a market cap that's far greater than a large percentage of the companies that trade on the Nasdaq, sure, they could do a 1 for 4 reverse split to qualify immediately, but for what reason. Historically, even when R/S's are done for the best of reasons, shareholders suffer, at least for awhile as they're viewed so negatively. Why do it, if they keep growing, it won't be that long before they can qualify without the R/S, that's doing it the right way.
Gary
I won't agree with that because many still died on it, they haven't yet at all with PLX-PAD. At best it's a marginal drug, better than nothing, but not a game changer, or drug is potentially a game changer as the stem cells appear to repair organs harmed by the virus. At least that's my layman's take on our drug, it improves blood flow that permit damaged organs to heal.
A friend of mine is a nephrologist, I've been encouraging him to take a serious look at the company both as an investment, but also because he has some heart issues, and while I know it hasn't been tried there, I wonder if it couldn't succeed. The heart is essentially our biggest and most important muscle. I believe that injecting PLX-PAD in it could improve it's condition. JMHO but from what I gather there are virtually no serious side effects from the drug, I think it would be worth a try after sufficient testing was done in other animals to validate safety. I'm not certain they won't learn about this in the Covid-19 tests as I believe some heart problems are occurring with it, if that's the case, and if they actually see improvement, it might preclude other animal trials.
Gary
In time I believe it's worth much more than that. I believe approval in any of the diseases they're targeting should bring at least a billion dollar market cap, probably more. Assume 25 million shares outstanding, that's $40 a share for every billion in the market cap.
I believe it it becomes the SOC for pneumonia, Covid-19 and others, a $5 to $10 billion market cap would be justified. I wouldn't be surprised if we either got a partnership or buyout offer once more is know about the covid-19 trial results.
Gary
As someone with higher risk, I intend to be cautious about all they're saying in terms of what we can do. Unless an effective therapeutic is found, I don't intend to put myself at much more risk than I have just living at home.
If we're lucky, it may be dormant in the Summer, and life nearer normal could become the case, but if anyone is still infected caution will still be necessary. If many Doctors are right, it will be back by November, and it won't be started by a few people coming in from elsewhere, it will probably be nearly everywhere at the same time. We'll need to be back to isolating very fast, or it will be out of control again. The key is not overwhelming our hospital system, and hopefully we'll have learned enough to prevent that. It could all be happening right in the middle of the Presidential election, so the politics could get very nasty.
Gary
This goes along with the experts who said that on a percentage basis it's like the flu. The problem is, it's far more contageous, so even if .1% die, by the time we have a vaccine, nearly 50% of the worlds population may have had the disease making even .1% a tremendous numbers of deaths.
If therapies reduce the death threat prior to a vaccine, perhaps things will return to something more like business as usual. I listened into a presentation this morning by 3 Israeli companies, including PSTI which I'm invested in, it sounds like they're each on track for something more therapeutic.
Gary
A company may easily have accumulated debts that go into the tens or hundreds of millions, yet owe no one anything. How? Because they issued more shares to finance their debt. When they begin to make money, I believe they work through the accumulated debt before they must pay taxes. I'm not an expert, that's how I understand it, but if someone more knowledgeable wants to chime in, please do.
In some cases, companies are bought out for less than the debt they've accumulated, the buy then inherits the debt, and sometimes that's the most the company has to offer.
Gary
I think we all need to realize just how sick the patients we're treating are. Currently something close to 80% of all people put on ventilators don't make it. When we start dosing tens to hundreds, we need to expect that some won't make it. If we can turn it around and 80% make it off the ventilators, but still 20% pass on, it would be a major game changer. Perhaps with intervention earlier we can cut the 20% down to small single digits, but we must remember that many who die are some of our eldest and most compromised patients, they all won't make it.
Gary
I thought he handled himself well. The Phase 2 will be registrational and be over 100 patients. Double blinded, which I personally disagree with, as those not getting the drug could be part of the general population, and the outcome should be identical, but that's how the regulators want to play it. I would hope that volunteers for the trial can cross over if their conditions deteriorate, but in most cases deterioration is deadly.
I would have liked to have seen all the presenters theorize if their drugs could work together. It seems that all are at least initially targeting on patients on ventilators, once again it's probably what the regulators prefer. Perhaps some on compassionate use will get the drug before ventilators and see if ventilators are avoided.
It sounds like a lot more patients are receiving compassionate use, but the company has probably been told not to hype it, let the clinical trials show what the drug can do, I'm just going by how he avoided discussing further compassionate use, at least for now, other than admitting there is a lot of it.
Hopefully the trial will begin in the next two weeks.
Gary
It seems to me that ACE is doing a great job of getting PSTI's equipment all over the New York area. I'm uncertain of precisely how large a territory they cover. The company has recently added more distributors, it may take time, but if the company keeps finding more companies like ACE to represent them, we're going to be very wealthy.
This is how the company grows, they build the equipment, supply the fluids, and others sell them in their distribution area. I do not know if the company has areas where more than one distributor has rights to sell, or service the area.
I believe there are many places that don't yet have a distributor, and if that's the case they can buy directly from the company. I suspect it would depend on the individual distributors agreements as to whether anyone can purchase direct from the company if a distributor is licensed in that area.
Gary
I think this demonstrates the problem that appears to be the case with many of PCTL's suppliers, namely they apply their own name to PCTL's products, including the liquids. Perhaps if you read their literature you'll see it's provided by PCTL, but it's often not clear.
If someone purchase a gallon of HOCL from PSTI it would probably have their label, but if you buy it from ACE, it will probably have a different label as they're either buying much larger quantities and rebottling them, or producing them on PCTL equipment they own, or lease. Without knowing which distributor owns what it's impossible to say who's purchasing the fluid from PCTL and who's licensed to make it with PCTL's equipment in their facility. Regardless of the specifics of how it's done, PCTL gets paid.
Many car dealerships put their name alongside that of the maker of the car, it really doesn't matter who you buy it from, a Ford is a Ford, and a Mercedes is a Mercedes regardless of who you purchase it from. The same can be said for our Annyhilizer. I know the company didn't develop it, they purchased the rights to it, what I don't know is if the originator actually had units installed anywhere, or if all installed units were produced by PCTL. I also can't say if model improvements have been made over time, or if today's is identical to the first one ever produced.
Gary
It's interesting that the United video, which follows the Delta one uses a hosed electrostatic device instead of the portable one used by Delta. Both are effective, I would think the portable device is easier to use.
I expect that both use HOCL and no telling who the supplier is. No doubt there are other supplier, but what PCTL offers is an unlimited and fresh supply if they purchased the equipment rather than the liquid from PCTL. I would think the airlines would get together and purchase a generator for an airport that would produce sufficient liquid to sanitize all aircraft utilizing portable electrostatic sprayers.
Right now, I doubt if the company has the capacity to deliver substantially many new orders, so approaching the airlines/airports at this time may be premature, but when they have the manufacturing capacity, it should happen.
Gary
I don't know how you can be certain Delta, or anyone else who's using an electrostatic sprayer isn't using our product. Certainly they may not be purchasing it from PCTL, but many of the distributors of PCTL's fluid buy in bulk and bottle in their own name, if you could find what they're using, it might turn out to be something PCTL shipped out in bulk.
Gary
I might be wrong, but I believe we're currently trading for essentially the same price we had prior to the announcement of the U.K. agreement. I wish someone could explain to me how we're not demonstrably higher with the addition of 600 hospitals and 1200 other medical facilities that will be getting our equipment, as I remember the agreement.
Certainly all the financial agreements haven't been revealed, just as they haven't been with all the other agencies the company sells through, but they certainly have value, and to date none of that value is seen in the stock price. It will be as the income starts to be realized and it's accounted for in the financials.
Gary
I believe the only control the Nasdaq imposes is maintaining the $1 share price, companies raise funds as they choose, and they may choose to reverse split to stay listed. Frankly in most cases substantial equity is lost in the reverse split, as share prices suffer, but if successful, in time they come back.
While I wasn't an investor back then, I believe investors in the long run will do better when NWBO reacquire Nasdaq without doing a reverse split. It may be awhile longer, but I suspect that may investors have averaged down and now own many more shares than when it was dramatically higher. When it makes the Nasdaq again they'll be far more profitable than if the stock did a massive R/S to hold the Nasdaq and they never added really cheap shares.
When will we be back on the Nasdaq, let's see how the market reacts to top line data and we'll see if it will be this year, or after drug approval, I believe it will be sooner, but we'll see.
Gary
Out of curiosity, as I now understand what hospitals are using, they actually comprise of two or more units, one that generates the fluid, the other that electrostatically sprays it around the room automatically. One question comes to mind, do they have a variety of sizes of generators, so that if a hospital needs several of the electrostatic sprayers a single generator will handle the capacity, or are they purely in pairs, so each sprayer unit has a generator. Clearly the generator is also used for handheld sprayers, whether electrostatic or not, and they're used in areas like bathrooms, etc.
I know the unit isn't that big, but space in many hospitals is pretty tight, if the electrostatic sprayer when filled can handle many rooms before refilling, the idea of a centralized larger generator, and multiple sprayers would make sense. I look forward to others thoughts about this.
In terms of the way the stock is trading, I believe many are still looking for the annual and quarterly report to be filed, as promised by the company. Some people want to see such information, even if it's likely to cost them more in higher stock prices. Likewise many people won't look at stocks like this at all, tell them about it when it's pennies, they're not interested, six month later tell the same person the stock has moved from $.05 to over $1 and they'll be very interested. They'd rather pay over twenty times more for a stock that's demonstrating what it has with earnings than look at the business plan of a company that's turning the corner on profitability before it's turned that corner. I believe we're very lucky to be here as the company is moving toward profitability.
Gary
I believe you got it about right, we'll see in time, but I believe the U.K. agreement is worth more than people are valuing it at, but I also believe they'll be in a lot of American hospitals, offices, aircraft, etc, at least their fluid will be. Some will buy equipment, many others will buy services from a company associated with them, and others will do it themselves, but with our fluid.
Gary
I wasn't estimating that long, I was taking the company's estimate. They are talking about in International trial, so other regulators are involved, but also the IRB, etc. I would hope that we're underway sooner, and hopefully they'll begin with every hospital that currently is using PLX-PAD in any trial, as they have experience with it, and probably have drug on hand, then they can expand from there.
I would think that if the trial is for hundreds of patients, they could all be recruited in a matter of days if they open sufficient sites. I would guess that only one Dr. in each hospital would administer the drug, but that shouldn't take that long, the hospital staff should be able to handle the patient once the drug's been injected. I'm no expert, but I believe one Dr. could dose several patients in a single day, does anyone disagree with what I'm saying.
Gary
From what was stated about Germany in the presentation it looks like they may not have dosed patients yet, but plan to be part of the Phase 2 Trial. Do others agree with that assessment?
The presentation doesn't really discuss the U.S. patients getting it on compassionate use. Based on what the Dr. from the initial hospital said, I believe the numbers now total 6, 4 in the initial hospital, and 1 in two other hospitals. I believe all are improving.
I certainly hope they get the trial underway very shortly.
Gary
Snow,
I believe that both Annual Report and Quarterly can go beyond the figures that are presented and discuss what's currently happening, as well as forecast the future. I believe it's that language that can spark substantial growth, not the figures contained in the report.
I'll agree that the greatest growth will come are revenue growth becomes clear, in fact I believe by the forth quarter we'll see daily moves up, and down that are a big or bigger than our current stock price, but that only comes when we're near or over $1.
Gary