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Believe me Angelo, I'm thrilled with the possibilities in solid cancers, even brain cancer alone would make this a great investment. I'm just curious about how some people believe the technology can work with other diseases. I do believe other diseases can benefit from personalized products, and perhaps the EDEN unit can do it, but that's not what NWBO's all about. Cancer is what they're after.
Gary
This is a pay me now or pay me later situation, if the longs are right. Now, before UK approval you can pay in the $.50 cent range, after UK approval it's possible the decimal point could move a place to the right if the media coverage of this new paradigm in cancer treatment receives the right sort of publicity. If the shorts are right, hard to say if the company survives to do more trials.
Note the early phase trials at UCLA, recognize that with Poly-ICLC and/or Keytruda they're achieving 50% survival at 5 years or beyond, but only when they're combined with DCVax-L. If additional trials were ever needed this would totally blow away anything happening in GBM, the regulators can read all about it from the Phase 1, IMHO it would be malpractice not to treat a patient with this off label, but if the regulators want to be deaf, dumb and blind they can ignore it and demand additional trials before an approval.
Gary
I think the question in many of our minds is, when the market opens on Monday, will the merger have occurred.
I believe it's possible, but certainly don't know that it's a fact. It would be nice to start the quarter with the merger completed and operating the entire quarter in the format of the new organization. I don't know how much will be revealed if it occurs, but hopefully we'll not have to wait for the quarterlies to learn everything pertinent.
Gary
I picked up more shares back then too, today I rounded up to a nice number to work with.
Gary
I believe all Institutions have charters that indicate where they're supposed to invest. I believe that some aren't restricted by the exchange, but are restricted on price. Few can invest below $4 or $5, but there are OTC stocks at those prices. There are probably a few Institutions who can invest now, but very few. Meanwhile, Institutions buying at or after the first of a quarter, and selling out before the end of a quarter routinely invest in companies that have nothing to do with their charter.
The best scenario for say a biotech charter that's not supposed to invest below $5 would be investing in a company like NWBO in the beginning of a quarter, and having the company exceed the $5 level during the quarter, they could book a major gain and keep the stock in their portfolio. That's the only way it would be seen there.
If they ever wanted to change things they could, electronically every Institutional buy or sale could appear, but by law they don't, and when they do have to report it's half way through the quarter following the one they were reporting on. If in the next quarter NWBO went above say $5 and had substantial Institutional buyers who kept it into the third quarter, it would be mid-August before we knew it.
Gary
I too picked up some shares today. I don't know precisely when the approval will come, or what price we'll be at the close the day before, but I believe that when approval is announced we'll see the Mother of all Gaps, and it's a gap that never will be filled. If the share price doesn't improve dramatically between now and approval I certainly believe the gap could be to a market cap in the $2 to $3 billion range, perhaps even higher if substantial media attention surrounds the approval announcement.
Today it was pointed out to me that when a company receives news from the FDA they must release it within 4 days. I don't know if identically the same applies to the UK, but if it does, the question is, do you release immediately, or do you work with major media outlets to plan a release on a given day with stories flooding the press and the airways with information about the new paradigm for treating cancer. I frankly don't know if such a major PR campaign can be engineered in this way, but if it can be, I think it would be worth doing. If it were done, a gap that takes the market cap over $5 billion is very possible, and the share price by the end of the day could be close to $10 or possibly more.
Is a market cap over $10 billion justified on approval for the UK? Probably not based on UK revenue immediately, but undervalued if based on it's potential as a new paradigm in the treatment of many solid cancers. I have seen cures for mice take a company from $1 to over $100, but of course it came back down to earth and didn't ultimately work in people. I believe that the DCVax's will work in people because it's made from the people it's being used in. It won't necessarily be curative itself, but it will make existing, and new treatments work better, for some, that will be a cure, for others, a longer life. Perhaps as or more important, at least to some, it will add no negative side effects, and may be able to eliminate certain treatments that have some of the worst side effects. It will take years, perhaps even decades to learn all the best ways to use it. We all should know that aspirin has been around for over a century and they still find new uses rather routinely.
There are people suggesting that other diseases can be benefitted with NWBO's personalizing technology. I frankly don't know how. Sure, without a tumor it would be possible to make DCVax-Direct with leukapheresis, but what do you inject it into. As I understand Direct, it's effective because it's creating the vaccine when injected into the tumor. Where do you put it to fight other diseases, or blood borne cancers for that matter. I believe much can be done with personalized medicines, I just don't know that it can be done in the same manner in the EDEN unit.
Gary
JFR, I agree, in fact if there were any Institutions who didn't belong in NWBO today's the day they had to be out, Monday's when they can get back in. I expect we may get more than normal Institutional buying Monday because the stock has till June 30th to meet the Institutional requirements, or they'll sell again by that date.
Frankly I don't know why Institutions don't use market cap rather than stock price to determine what they can, or can't invest in, but the same thing can be said about exchange listing. A company with 25 million shares outstanding and a share price of $4 can get on the Nasdaq, with a market cap of $100 million, and stay on it with a $1 share price and market cap of $25 million while a company with nearly a billion dollar market cap, but over a billion shares outstanding can't get on, or stay on an exchange. In the case of NWBO, they'll probably need a market cap over $5 billion to get a $4 share price required to list on the Nasdaq unless they're permitted to relist at a lower price, as they were on the Nasdaq before.
The exchanges by operating this way are encouraging reverse splits, whether they're intending to, or not, and it's rare that market cap is maintained through a reverse split. I much prefer the company not doing the reverse split as long as eventually, with approvals, they should easily be able to list on a major exchange without it.
Gary
Thanks TTsr,
Monday figured to be day T-50 with the 150 day path, while I believed that approval would probably come by day T-30, IE in a little over 20 days, now it's starting to look like only 10 days. I don't know if my number is correct, or we're truly at T-50 today, so a 4 day difference from what I was thinking. Regardless, if the new shorter period is to apply, approval should come no later than April 10th if they meet the schedule in the UK.
It seems like the shorts are possibly making their last stand with today's trading, the bashers have spent years trying to persuade the investment public that DCVax-L cannot possibly be approved anywhere. If substantial gains aren't forthcoming in the next 10 days, we'll truly get explosive growth on approval.
I keep saying I don't intend to buy more, but I'll almost certainly buy again before the close.
Gary
Thanks to all for their best wishes, I feel confident that the surgery will have big benefits. At 81 you have to expect some aches and pains, but I didn't want to live with what I've been experiencing for many months over the rest of my life.
Last week I purchased at $.47, so at $.60 we were up $.13, retrenching such a gain by 30 to 50% is quite common and I believe we're positioned to move higher next week. Monday is T-50 and should be the day the UK releases the last couple weeks approvals, while I doubt we're on the list, anything is possible. I've still not heard from anyone certain about whether the company will be informed of approval when it occurs, or only when the bi-monthly list is revealed and furthermore, if they are informed, can they release the information, or must they hold for the official UK release.
For all of the Christian faith, have a Happy Easter.
Gary
Today is T-54, with tomorrow being a holiday we certainly shouldn't have any news before Monday, T-50. Even if we are down a bit today, it's been a good week.
On a personal note I am having minor back surgery tomorrow and hopefully will eliminate the pain I have when standing and walking.
Gary
Bob,
As a new investor I know very little compared to the rest of you, my numbers came mostly from reading others posts, but I believe they make sense. If once quarterly earnings are in and the share price reflects the financials I'd be thrilled to be starting in the $.50 cent range. The way the business is being described, it could grow very rapidly. DOD contracts take time and a ton of paperwork, but they can be very lucrative.
I originally invested for the battery technology, it still sounds like it could be a huge winner, but I had the impression that if ordered the material could be delivered and would work with little or no modification in most battery manufacturing. Now it doesn't sound that close, but perhaps that's more because of lack of funds, not the technology. If that's the case, I'd hope that with interest from one or more car/battery makers it won't be that long before it's being used in many electric cars.
I believe between these two different, but related technologies, with just a few new contracts that Nasdaq listing could be in place without an R/S at all.
Gary
I may be crazy, but it seems to me the Core Optics has a goal of being on a major exchange. If they have the income to do it without a very big reverse split we should all have a major gain from todays prices. It's hard to say how high the price will be without a R/S but that will be a starting point. It sounded like it will be in the $.20 to $.60 depending on what P/E ratio is applied by the market, regardless that's a big gain from today. While I'd like to see them build to reach $4 without a R/S, if they're anxious something like a 1 for 10 to 1 for 25 should do the job. From where we are, it would be a very nice percentage gain.
Gary
With a market order you're letting the MM's drop the price, buy your stock, and take it right back up again. If the stock had moved up, and you want to insure a gain, but ride it higher if it goes higher, set a stop loss order at a specific price just below where the stock is selling for, if it comes down it will sell at your price. If it moves up, reset your stop loss higher. Eventually the stock will probably hit your stop loss order and you'll be out. On the other hand, if it reaches a point where you either want to keep it, or don't want it to sell to easily, drop the stop loss lower. If you really want to sell, put in a limit sell order that's at the price being bid and it will be sold without the risk of a market order where the MM's can play games with you.
Trailing stop losses are a good way to go if you're not in a rush to sell, but want out if it goes below a certain price. If you want to sell when it reaches a certain price you can put in a sell order at that price and it will be sold if it hits the price. When it's close to the price you may want to rethink it and raise your price, but it will sell if it hits the price you set.
Gary
Thanks Doc,
If the products from leukapheresis can be refrigerated or frozen without preservative it shouldn't be a problem. In my case of receiving stem cells, I had a cold at the time my stem cells were to be donated and the decision was made to take them on schedule, which meant they had to be preserved and cryogenically frozen. The stem cells themselves could have been administered through a normal catheter, but the preservative required a larger diameter so a Hickman catheter was used. I believe the preservative was DMSO. I believe the stem cells are normally viable for days under normal refrigeration, or freezer temps without preservatives. If I'm right about that, much the same may be true of how they can handle leukapheresis, I suspect that a preservative would be unacceptable.
The tumor and the vaccine clearly can be stored cryogenically, I don't believe any preservative is needed. If it's critical to do the leukapheresis and almost immediately begin making the vaccine the idea of sending the EDEN unit to a facility close to where the leukapheresis is being done may be a smart way to go. At City of Hope I know they send people to get stem cells and transport them there, in many cases it's to Europe because in many European countries if you want to get a drivers license you provide a DNA sample, I believe mine came from Europe. Frankly we should do something similar, only people planning a crime should fight giving a DNA sample, but for many they'd consider it an invasion of their privacy.
Gary
I believe that many facilities can do leukapheresis, must it be done in some special facility to make the vaccine?
Gary
I don't trust the MMs with market orders ever, I have seen them drop the price substantially to get stock cheap and take it right back up immediately. I don't know if the investors can ever recover from the way they manipulated them.
Gary
I believe that we all have our happy place. I'd like to see a million in NWBO in my account, that would make me happy, but I think that it will go much higher than that, hopefully this year. Where is your happy place.
We're at T-55, early next week I think that we'll see the next UK report on approved products in the last few weeks. I doubt we'll see NWBO'S name there, but it will not be long before we do. I hope to be happy then, or possibly shortly thereafter.
Gary
We're at T-55. Awareness is growing that we're heading toward approval.
Gary
I agree with you and so does the company in what they're saying, but people feel quite sure the UK filing is for brain cancers, not tumor agnostic.
Frankly I doubt we could deliver in sufficient quantity if we got tumor agnostic up front, let's deliver on brain cancer, add some others as off label treatment and build capacity to meet the coming demand.
As for DCVax-Direct, if it's injection into the tumor is essentially making the equal of DCVax-L in the tumor, I wonder if the trials for it ought to be combined with Poly-ICLC and/or Keytruda to improve its performance from the get go.
If the FDA and others would allow negotiations on what's charged under right to try, without gaining proprietary information companies aren't willing to give, patients wouldn't have to wait a decade or more to get great products because trials and approvals are taking that long. It seems that the potentially millions who could benefit from experimental products would at least have a choice. It's sad, but they don't seem to care about the millions who can't get the products over the years.
Gary
Karlchen,
I'm of the belief that they can go for a tumor agnostic label with a single trial that's targeting several different cancers, though I don't know this would be a fact, nor do I know if they could list a variety of therapeutics to supplement the DCVax-L which experts in the different cancers may wish to choose for maximum benefit. I don't know, but believe that Poly-ICLC and/or Keytruda may not be the best choice for all cancers.
I believe that Drs. will choose to do some off label treatment, but gaining insurance coverage will take substantial evidence. I don't know if it couldn't be documented in a trial faster, even if the trial is only partially completed and the evidence comes from taking a peek, or the DSMB being open about the improvements they're seeing and ending the trial early.
I suspect that we may do at least a few trials that cost the company nothing because other companies want to prove their product greatly enhances DCVax-L's improved outcome and they're willing to pay for the trials, possibly even purchasing the DCVax-L, or we might co-sponsor the trial by providing the DCVax-L. At UCLA I believe they were doing the trials at no cost to NWBO, but may very well have had funding from other agencies. Where Keytruda and/or Poly-ICLC were used I can't say if they paid for them, or they were provided by the maker.
Gary
Great post Chiugray,
Of course the only way to really know the worth of NWBO is to continue and expand trials with its products. One extreme is that it only works in GBM and DCVax-Direct doesn't work at all. The other extreme is that both DCVax's work, and should be a part of the SOC in practically every solid cancer.
Aspirin has been around for over a century and they still find new ways to use it. I can imagine that 20 years from now they'll find new ways to use the DCVax's and new products to use in combination with it to make the treatment more effective. I suspect that it will take the better part of a decade for all the results on trials that are initiated in the next couple years to be completed and evaluated, but when approved, both DCVax-L and Direct will be used off label based on anecdotal evidence that shows its benefits.
What does this mean wrt a buyout. To me it's saying that the longer the company waits, and the more they learn, the greater the price will be.
If LP sells before further trials have been done with DCVax-Direct it's likely that they buyer would be stealing the company, no matter how much they paid when compared to the earning potential of the products they're receiving.
Gary
My mistake, I thought that if they had a contract that they could build the batteries.
Gary
Perhaps it depends on how you get your CNBC feed, on my phone the trade time reports as the current time and I know I saw trading right after the open, not 15 minutes after. When I go from the list to the more detailed quote it says RT quote.
Gary
What needs to be completed with Endurion, I was of the belief that if a battery maker wished to license the use of it in their batteries they could do so today. Am I wrong about that.
Thanks,
Gary
I didn't look in that much detail, but it's clear they have plenty of room for growth or even taking in an equity partner without needing to ask investors to vote to authorize additional shares. It seems like many here are looking forward to a buyout, short term it's a great gain, but I believe they often occur before tremendous share price growth would occur if the company continued to operate independently. We both observed that in IMGN and frankly I think it's true of many of the buyouts that shareholders welcome.
Gary
I believe CNBC was showing quotes immediately after the open, I don't really think they're delayed on my Android device. It says it's a RT quote.
I trade on Fidelity, but frankly find the CNBC site more friendly for watching many stocks that I don't own in my Fidelity account. I could probably set up something different from them, but CNBC has worked well for me.
Gary
Today would be day T-56, roughly 6 days till the next release of authorized drugs from the UK. While it's doubtful our name will be on it, it isn't impossible. It would certainly be a shock to all here, the longs would clearly be thrilled, the shorts in real trouble. As for the bashers, if they don't have a position themselves, and are only the agent of shorts, they'll just keep doing what they're being paid to do, though I suspect some paying them may stop, others may actually intensify their efforts. Time will tell.
I'll try daily to remind us of the T-number, the time to when we hit the day 150 that's the UK's target for acting on products getting priority review.
Gary
I think we all should be perfectly clear about not wanting a buyout at this time, or for the foreseeable future. Why? Because no company in its right mind will pay nearly as much as LP, and most longs here believe it's worth. The BP's are only too happy to circle like vultures and pick up companies with promising products, but which simply don't have the financial and other support needed to take the product over the finish line and gain approval. Others besides LP might have done this years ago, and investors would have probably seen double the current share price, and at some times that may have been $5 to $10, more recently it would have been much lower than that.
I certainly don't rule out a buyout in time, though personally I would prefer an equity partnership with a BP at the right time, but IMHO either partnership or buyout should be at least in the $20 a share range, and preferably $30 a share or more. My experience says it's very rare to achieve an offer at over double the current price, so that's saying that I don't see such action occurring until we've achieved at minimum a low double digit share price.
This doesn't mean that we cannot partner with a BP, etc. in co-sponsoring a trial, perhaps even permit them to take a tiny equity position, but not the 20% or more of the company that potentially could give them control of the company in time. I believe the potential exists for many trials that include other companies products added to DCVax-L, it's very possible that other companies may pay substantially for these trials, even possibly paying NWBO for the DCVax-L used in the trial, rather than having NWBO paying for part of the trial, it's up to the companies involved to determine how the trials will be structured. Once we have an approval, I would think the company could sell DCVax-L for use by others in trials, but probably limited to where it was approved. As always JMHO.
Gary
As a newer investor I certainly have much to learn, but I sense a great deal of concern from some investors about long term funding. I briefly looked at a few places but couldn't determine the authorized shares. As I see it, if the company is right up against the authorized shares, as long as they justify their actions, I've got to believe shareholders would authorize more shares. If they're not right up against the authorized share limit the company can raise funds without coming to the shareholders.
I know some shareholders dread dilution, I don't as long as I see the reason is justified. Obtaining regulatory approval for products in development is certainly a justification in my mind. Sometimes being frugal, and not diluting, is worse as it's often done by slowing the process to approval. I'd rather see a company dilute if by not doing so approval could be delayed a substantial period of time. Certainly it's a balancing act, but dilution should not be considered the end of the world.
Gary
What disturbs me is the fact that IMGN finally had a wholly owned approved product and each quarter sales were growing. The confirmational trial had great data, and in fact was approved last week. If they held for 6 more months I think revenue, and therefore price would have been dramatically higher. After four decades in business they could have taken another 6 months or so before going out of it.
Gary
Do you know if he's going after the UK as well. I believe both UK and EU's files are pretty similar, of course they were together until Brexit. NWBO is going after the UK as that's where their commercial manual manufacturing is and I really believe they need the approval of their EDEN unit to go much beyond the UK. I expect UK approval in the next two months so I see it as a big opportunity right now.
I have a feeling that Missling is like NWBO's CEO and able to keep it together on a shoestring until he gains an approval. Hopefully it will happen later this year, but if not, I suspect he'll find a way to do what's needed until he achieves that initial approval. IMGN operated much the same way, there was one period that they only had enough to pay people for two weeks.
The best such story was the CEO of FedEx not having enough to make payroll so he took what he had to Vegas and got lucky. It might be a very different world had he crapped out.
Gary
I really was unhappy with the buyout and spent some on just out of the money calls in hope that it wouldn't go through. I did make a nice profit, but after all those years really felt it should have been worth more.
Those were fun days, I've not heard from Allen or LarryMacc for years. Ed occasionally kept in touch, and of course who can forget the Cheesebeast.
I don't know if Mitch is still around, if he is I think he's well into his 90's.
Gary
Did you forget to use your other ID?
By the time a deal is done with a BP, or anyone else, NWBO should be on, or applying to, a major exchange.
Gary
If a company partnered with NWBO or a major financing occurred, a seat on the board should certainly be a possibility. If a BP were to take a major partnership position, say 20% of the company, or more, they would almost certainly get multiple seats on the board. Effectively such a partnership would give them a great deal of control, especially as Institutional ownership grows. With the support of Institutional owners a BP that owned 20% of the company couldn't be stopped in an issue it brought to a shareholders vote. I'm fine with partnerships, but I really don't want to see major equity sold until we're selling well into double digit share prices.
I know many believe Merck will at some point be our partner or buyer, if so, I hope it's not until we're selling for $15 or more, so they can justify paying $30 or more for the stock. I would not be surprised with the acceptance of the EDEN unit if some agreement were made with CRL and it could involve a small equity position, say 5% or less, where CRL becomes a major commercial producer of the vaccine as well as taking care of it cryogenic storage and distribution. I would hope that CRL would bring in a billion or more but it wouldn't be just for the stock, it would also be for the rights to lease the EDEN's from the company and producing the vaccine for them. On a share basis this might be in the $30 range, but the shares would be just a part of the deal, so you'd have to consider the price per share being lower, but other things considered in the cost. CRL would make their money back many times over with the sale of vaccine they'd be manufacturing, storing, and distributing.
Gary
I haven't been here long enough to honestly judge him, but I believe it would all turn around in his favor if the Journal article came out and a filing was made for approval by at least one of the regulators. I'll take him at his word that these things are in process, however until they happen he's not being seen as getting anything done.
I know he came from IMGN and essentially they way he's operating is how IMGN operated. Investors never like how much time things take, and frankly they often take longer than most CEO's think they will. IMGN's first CEO was Mitch Sayare, he often used soon in discussing when something would happen. When Mitch said something would happen it eventually did, but when he said it would happen soon, soon might be two years later. It got to the point that in our posts we'd spell it backwards in caps, IE NOOS.
Mitch at one point took our phone calls and posted on Silicon Investor, but he got in trouble with the SEC for doing so and that ended. I stuck with IMGN from its beginnings and did get a reward in the end, but they really shouldn't have sold out when the did, on finally achieving success with a wholly owned drug. I believe if they remained public 6 months to a year longer they'd have roughly doubled the buyout price.
I doubt if Missling will be ousted, regardless, I do believe that the company has approvable products. If approvals are gained with all the regulators I believe all will be forgiven.
Gary
That is very interesting, I had thought that they were using multiple cameras with a computer integrating what was being sent. I think that the helicopter views of the vehicle are amazing.
Gary
I think in every stock I can think of at times I've felt like investors were being treated like mushrooms. I frankly liked the marketplace as it existed years ago when spreads were far greater, and people, not computers, did most of the trading. I really liked to look through the Annual Reports back then, they were expensive publications, pleasant to read, gave a feel for where the company is, and where it's going, and wasn't a major publication on the risks of owning stocks. I'm saddened that our Govt. and the SEC insists that so much be said on the risks of owning stocks in general, and the company specifically. I feel much the same about drug commercials that spend more time with what could go wrong than the benefits of their products.
In reality, I believe we all need to realize that much of what our companies are working on has issues that are out of their control. They may know something's happening, like a peer reviewed article being accepted, but they have no idea how long it will be, or how many changes may be deemed necessary, before it can finally be published. If they wish to speak with certain regulators before making a submission, they have no control on how long that may take. The point is, if they talk, they're often proven wrong because of circumstances they can't control, so they choose not to talk.
Gary
SM,
That's what I felt, but Mike, who provided the UK site for announcing approvals made it sound like that's how the UK wants it done, and perhaps the company isn't notified until the UK update is about to occur. I really don't know and while I believe you could be right, no one else chimed in and said so. I feel quite certain that the FDA notifies the company on making a decision, and if not an approval might even discuss what needs to be done with the company in addition to the CRL, but I'm not sure of that. I suspect they might speak with the company if they're approving, but requiring a conformational trial. I believe the UK speaks with the companies as much or more than the FDA, but don't know what I think is true.
In the case of the FDA, I don't know how much has changed since the IMCL fiasco where Martha Steward and the CEO went to prison for insider trading. It was clear in that case that the FDA had corresponded about problems with the trial, but the company openly said things were going well with the FDA and achieved a partnership with BMY on that basis. I believe there is still far more discussion than we realize, but the FDA now will state if what's said about them is a misrepresentation of their position. At the time of the IMCL fiasco, the FDA was prevented from commenting on IMCL misrepresenting what they said.
We should know for certain in two months or less, it should be good times for NWBO investors.
Gary
Thanks JFR,
As I see it, LP is constantly bringing in a tiny stream of money with newly issued shares. Frankly I'm uncertain if they're ATM sales, or permitting or asking friendly investors with options to cash them in for shares. I believe she holds, or is very friendly with investors holding virtually hundreds of millions in options and it backstops her in terms of needing cash on a daily basis. We know that she's wealthy and holding substantial options, but has restriction on how quickly she can sell them.
There is no doubt in my mind that if the company had billions available they'd operate differently. DCVax-Direct would almost certainly be in trials, and other new trials would no doubt be underway to prove a tumor agnostic label. If we had that, we couldn't possibly meet the demand, but the game will totally change once the EDEN is approved.
I don't know if others estimates for manufacturing the EDEN for a few tens of thousands is true, but even if significantly off, it would still be saying that the EDEN can be manufactured for less than what the first patient to get vaccine from it will be charged. In short, if we had the approval and the manufacturer who could manufacture tens of thousands of them a month, the need for the vaccine could easily pay for all the EDEN's being made. For now, we can only strive to get it accepted for commercial production. I don't believe that money is preventing that from happening.
Clearly in the future, after approvals, NWBO will have choices to make. Do they want to grow as a company, and take on much production themselves, or stay essentially as they are, and contract for essentially all they're doing. I would suppose that even the design of new trials could be contracted out, if that's what they really want to do, but I would think they've had the time to design the trials already, with approvals and revenue coming in, and much higher stock prices, hopefully it won't be long before they can get them started.
If you're right about a new funding vehicle, that's a positive. I suspect that after one or more approvals some contracts, or partnerships, may be announced, though it may not come until we have the EDEN and perhaps a filing with the FDA or other regulators.
As I've stated, I believe we're at T-57 today, but I believe the odds are pretty close to even that by T-30 we'll have an approval. If I'm right about that, I don't know that we'll truly get a runup to approval that's near what would occur if it didn't occur until nearly day 150. If it's correct that news only comes from the UK at the beginning and middle of the month, I'm suggesting that odds are even we'll have an approval by the mid-April report, roughly 3 weeks from now. No guarantee it will happen then, but I really believe the UK knows our vaccine very well and won't hesitate to approve it well before their 150 day self imposed deadline.
I have us closing up 3 cents today. Each 15 day increment between UK announcements has roughly 10 trading days. I don't know that we could average 3 cents a day, but if we could we'd be at roughly 80 cents by Mid-April, $1.10 by May 1st, and $1.40 by mid-May when we hit the 150 day mark. I'm not suggesting this will happen, but perhaps it will be something close to this. I'm still of the belief that we should see $2 or more on approval, so unlike some stocks that go down on approval, I still strongly believe we'll move up.
Frankly I'd be fine if we only averaged 2 or even 1 cent a day from now to approval, it just makes the post approval move that much bigger. I certainly would think we'll be somewhat higher by approval, time will tell. Where we go after approval is largely in how it's perceived by the media, and how the company approaches it. I cannot remember the last time LP appeared at a Institutional or Brokerage conference, if that doesn't change post approval it may be slow growth with gradually increasing earnings and regulatory filings, but if only a week or two goes by between LP presentations, I believe we could see the movement to a major exchange by Fall, and perhaps double digit prices by the end of the year.
Gary
The problem with comparing earnings and stock listings is that earnings aren't reliant on shares outstanding. The Nasdaq looks at a $4 share price to list, and $1 to keep a listing, but you can have up to a year to get back above $1 if you do go below and are warned by the Nasdaq. The point is, it doesn't matter what the market cap is.
A company with 50 million shares outstanding needs to have a $200 million market cap, I.E. a $4 share price to be listed, whereas a company with 500 million shares outstanding needs to have a $2 billion market cap. The Nasdaq, NYSE, etc essentially are encouraging marginal companies to do reverse splits to stay listed, or for companies that want a listing to do the R/S to get the qualifying share price.
The sad part is that R/S's almost always initially result in a drop in the market cap as they're perceived as being very negative in spite of all the arguments for them. Personally I'd rather see the company take the time to build up the market cap to meet the $4 a share rather than R/Sing to get it. I believe if the company were selling for say $.60 a share, if they did a 1 for 10 which should take them to $6 they'd actually be lucky to achieve $4, so the R/S could cost investors over 1/3rd of their equity.
If the company really wants to move off the OTC, I believe the AMEX requires $1 to be listed. If a small R/S were used to achieve that, I believe that's far more tolerated than a much larger one. A move to the Nasdaq could come some time later as share price increased to $4 or higher.
From what people are saying about earnings from Core Optics, if true that they're earning double, or triple digit millions annually currently, I really believe a few quarters of reporting such earnings will result in at least over $1, and depending on the actual earnings, perhaps even over $4. I really think we need to see what we have, and what we can add with new sales, before pushing the R/S. I hope they give it time to see. Of course we're currently not discussing what the existing company could bring to the table, but we should. Having our battery technology incorporated into any major battery makers mass produced batteries could be huge, I have no idea how close we may be to such an agreement, but hopefully that's in the cards as well, and that could put us on the Nasdaq as quickly as other listing requirements could be met.
Gary