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Because so much detail is posted on the design of this product already, I bet SS has most of the patents (or pending) for it.
As to replicating it... Probably not too hard. Hopefully MRVLs lawyers can stay on top of this.
Below is a link to SS's patents. There are a bunch of one's related to power, voltage, and currents. I suspect these comprise this design. Also, you can check out where he/MRVL is going in the product world.
Damn... Check out the patent he has on GPS tracking for traffic! I've had this idea for a while, but have been unable to architect/engineer the solution for the real world.
http://www.freepatentsonline.com/result.html?p=1&srch=ezsrch&search=Search&pn=&in=sutardja&icn=&is=&ic=&isd=&isdto=&ttl=&abst=&aclm=&spec=&an=&acn=&as=&ac=&ccl=&icl=&apn=&apd=&apdto=&parn=&ref=&fref=&oref=&prir=&pex=&asex=&agt=&uspat=on&date_range=all&stemming=on&sort=chron
S2, Your call on TXN leading this last leg may still be correct!
Currently the options I purchased since you made the TXN call (actually I picked them up on the drop after the call) are up over 20%! Do you think TXN will still run to $36-37 by year end, or should I cut and run here and now? Do you have an updated outlook/thoughts?
Personally, I like what TXN is doing with it's technology products, but I think the TA is going to override anything the company is doing right now or at least until the next ER.
As always, thanks for you input/advice!
DJ
...They (MRVL) currently have contracts with OEMs to produce power supplies using their new 88EM80xx chips. These should be available in the middle of 2008. Climate Savers is an organization dedicated to spreading the word that power savings in computers can make a difference. They are dedicated to reducing power consumption and saving $5.5 billion by 2010, at an average 8.85 cents per kW/h.
If Marvell's claims are true, and they can be independently verified, then the potential now exists just by switching the power supply, that the entire machine immediately reduces its power consumption by 50%, and that's without changing any other individual machine components over to green. That's going real green, and it could also result in real green being in our bank accounts at the end of the year.
Guys... I'm telling this power savings solutions is going to be huge! We just have to figure out how much this will add to the bottom line and at what GM!
Here's the link to the full article:
http://www.tgdaily.com/content/view/34709/118/
RE: Energy-Saving Chip -Lakers any idea on price and GM, design wins?
This could be a huge market for MRVL! With the whole "green" initiative that is occurring right now, this could turn out to be as big or bigger then the HD biz. IBM is really touting this in their ads so I wonder if they are/will become a customer?
Unfortunately, very few understand this technology and its potential in the market? Until the revenue $s start showing up in earnings, I don't think all the PR in the world will make a difference in the stock price for MRVL.
Thanx,
DJ
Here's a link to the PR on the MRVL website if anyone is interested:
http://www.marvell.com/products/power/pfc_controllers/release/918
BRIEFING.COM] If you are a market bull, you can't ask for anything more than to see the financial and technology sectors take leadership positions. When that is the case, the stock market has an excellent shot of trading higher considering the two sectors combined account for approximately 35% of the S&P's market capitalization....(link below to full article)
Like S2 said, Nov. will tell the tale.
Also, I heard tomorrow Barron's will highlight tech and the tech stocks it sees as movers. Hopefully our favorites will be on the list!
(I couldn't get this link to launch properly, but if you cut and paste it into the browser address, it works)
http://briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?SiteName=Investor&ArticleId=SI20071026162320
DJ
A question for some of the legal experts here. In looking at companies with a high percentage of shorts... If a hedge fund shorts a lot of a company's stock, and then goes bankrupt, how do those shares get covered? and what priority will these shares get in bankruptcy court? Has anyone seen this happen?
TIA,
DJ
Thanks S2! I'll keep watching for it. My thoughts are that when big money starts/continues flowing into tech/semis, TXN will get pulled back up with it even more so then some of the other stocks because of its stability and dividend.
Thanks again,
DJ
Thoughts on TXN today?
I just picked up a couple JAN 32.5 Calls @ 1.56. I'll see where they go over the next few days. I still have a lot of DD to do here, but thought a 9% haircut is a little steep so I thought I would throw a few dollars into the mix.
We will see! Looking to hear others opinions.
Thanks,
DJ
$$$ brings out the passion in all of us. Like cutter said, everyone needs to do their own DD, BUT the ideas and analysis that crosses these boards (S2's & MRVL's) is some of the most insightful and honest information I have come across on the net.
S2 has lead us to this new board because of what he saw in the TA of TXN and the SOX in general. His expertise in this area is first rate and it works well for him. I appreciate his work in this area and hope he continues to post as he is able.
I hope everyone can remember that we all have ideas and opinions and that they should be shared and discussed, but please try to make them impersonal no matter how crazy they may seem. If anyone thinks that someone is posting total BS, take it up with the moderator, or a neutral party on the board, and hopefully it can be resolved.
...so now back to TXN. I just started doing my own DD and will be looking at the numbers, but what does everyone else think? TA people, what are the charts telling us (now)? Me personally, I'm sort of neutral on TXN and I think it will trade with the SOX, but I'm still looking for the "why" to put my money in TXN vs some other SOX related stock? As I answer my own questions, I'll post my findings.
Thanks to everyone for your input!
DJ
Like clockwork, it's pinning to perfection @ 17.50 (+/- .05)
I find it interesting that it could be pinned this easily with only 8.5 mil shares traded. I guess with both sides having so many open options @ 17.50, set to expire, the forces work together instead of against each other?
Once again ...great call S2.
Thanks!
DJ
i, Did you sell those OCT 17.50s? If not, now is the time to pull the trigger. Take the profit and run or at least sell enough to break even if you want to roll the dice with the some of them.
Good Luck,
DJ
BRCM Also gets free hype like this...
A few excerpts from the RealMoney Quick Picks article. Please read the entire article. Link at the bottom - DJ
...Perhaps this is the case with Broadcom's BCM21551 "3G phone on a chip" solution, which it claims can let mobile phone manufacturers "build next-generation 3G HSUPA phones with breakthrough features, sleek form factors and very long battery life."...
... I believe it would be a coup for Apple to be early to market with such a robust device -- high data speeds, touch interface and the iPhone's killer ease of use -- but it would make a logical next step in the product evolution for the iPhone. If Broadcom is able to win that slot with Apple, its shares would stand to benefit much the way other suppliers have, such as Portal Player and Synaptics have with iPods and the way Skyworks and RF Micro Devices stand to gain with the iPhone.
The only catch is that Broadcom, like the others, can't really talk about it given Apple's sticky supplier confidentiality agreements; I guess we'll have to wait for the eventual teardown analysis for confirmation.
http://biz.yahoo.com/ts/071016/10384694.html?.v=3
bbq, In regards to REGSHO, I have a couple of questions.
1) On the removal of the "grandfathered" shares, how are the new 35 'settlement' days calculated? Is it days the market is open? or calendar days? or something else. I'm trying to figure out exactly when this "really" hits the threshold stocks.
2) After the 35 days, the broker-dealer(s) that have not yet delivered, are supposed to deliver (even if they have to purchase on the open market) or they will not be permitted to take any additional short orders for that stock. Is this interpretation correct? Since other broker-dealers can still short the stock will this really be effective?
Good Luck, TIA
DJ
bbq, I agree the OCT 17.50s will probably stay pinned.
I also agree that this qtr should be pretty good based on all of MRVL's customer's press and earnings. I think the GM will move up, closer to 49%, but its hard to gauge how much of the Intel inventory was left over vs shipments from TSMC.
My big outstanding question is the tax rate (19%). I believe that I understand what is happening to create that high level, but the "why" has not been answered yet. As I understand the situation, MRVL is selling in a new country that has a very high initial tax rate. With a currently low volume of sales at this time, the tax rate is quite high, but as sales ramp up the tax rate reduces bringing the overall tax level back in-line.
So the question remains, where/what are they selling and to whom? I haven't seen any PR that answers this. I googled "high initial taxes" and found an entry that Finland and Sweden both have high initial tax rates. That led me to thinking of customers from those counties and then Nokia popped into my mind. It looks like Nokia is a small customer for MRVL only handling the E series of smartphones at this time. Could this be it? Nokia using more MRVL products?
I'm just trying figure out how they are going to get that tax rate back in-line.
Any thoughts? TIA
DJ
D-Link appears to be using ATHR on their highly rated Wireless N router (655).
...The mini-PCI radio module to the left is an Atheros AR5BMB71 reference design based on one of the xSpan AR5008 series chipsets.
Here's a link of the review showing and describing the internals:
http://www.smallnetbuilder.com/content/view/30087/96/1/1
S2, I think the PXA270 (XSCALE) has already been moved to Taiwan Semi. (I somewhat remember this from the CC. I think during the Q&A one of the analysts posed a question that allowed us to get this answer by reading between the lines) This is the chip in most of the devices out there today, even many of the newest models.
Lakers might be able to confirm this for everyone? I think XScale is on its way this qtr unless there was major pricing pressure from TI and Samsung. I'm sure there are/were some transitional production costs but this could be clarified during the next CC.
DJ
Net,
The Maxtor solutions (now part of Seagate) are pretty solid devices at a fair price (get one of the Shared Storage II not version I). Both come with PC/Mac backup software included (not sure how many licenses are included?) Once this device is configured, you can use the Microsoft sync to keep files up to date.
The difference between the two models is that the Dual (1TB - ~$425) version has 2 disks (2x500GB) which can configured as 1 big drive (1TB) or to mirror each other so that the device will continue to work if one of the drives goes bad (you get 500GB for storage) I would only buy this version if you want the mirroring (RAID1)
The single drive version (500GB - ~$200)
Check out the links are below.
If you have any other questions, let me know.
Good Luck,
DJ
http://www.maxtorsolutions.com/en/catalog/MSS_II_Dual/
http://www.maxtorsolutions.com/en/catalog/MSS_II/
Net,
I believe you are looking for a NAS (network attached storage).
Down below is a link to the best resource I know about these devices. Without knowing your specific needs or environment, it's hard to recommend a specific device, but I can tell you the best price/performance/low-power devices all use a MRVL processor ;o)
For quick picks, I would look at the Buffalo LinkStation Pro or the Maxtor Shared Storage II. If you have a wireless router you should be able to pull this device into your network and access it via you wireless network. If you want to post what you are trying to accomplish, I will reply with the device I would buy as the feature sets vary greatly from device to device.
http://www.smallnetbuilder.com/component/option,com_nas/Itemid,190/chart,13/
Good Luck,
DJ
Looking for advice on how to handle a stock that is being acquired.
I own some shares of ViaCell (VIAC) which is being acquired in an all cash deal and should close before the end of the year. Are there any plays left here? I get the feeling this is a done deal, but I'm tempted to wait a week or two to see if anything else develops. I'm also considering setting a limit order 2-3% higher then the reported price to see if it gets taken out.
Any ideas or thoughts would be appreciated!
TIA
DJ
Lakers look at your points from a different angle specifically through the eyes of SS. Here's my take.
He's already running the company like a Mom & Pop.
Why would SS change anything unless he gets pressured? I believe he will not change unless the the big boys put pressure on him to do so. If anyone on this board goes to the shareholder meeting I would love to hear about the sentiment of the other shareholders. As much as I hate the way the stock is acting, I find it refreshing to see SS running the company the way he thinks he needs to. He's managing the company, not the stock price. Only if I felt the fundamentals of the company were failing would I be calling for a change.
I don't think SS has the 7+ billion to take it private on his own so he will need some help. I disagree that the big mutual funds would want a reverse IPO. I believe most of these funds like the security, access, and openness that a public company investment brings. (Now if there were a bunch of funds/mgt companies, that were known to shake things up like KKR, SAC, Bain, etc., then I might think differently.) So to pull this off, SS would need some major unified funding that would then own more of the company than him. Talk about being put under a microscope!!! He's safer where he is now.
Double the money in 1 - 1.5 years through an IPO.
I think everyone on this board believes that will happen even with the horrible CCs that we will have to sit through until they find a CFO that can properly handle them.
Call me crazy, but I think the real "smart money" sees the same things we do and are buying when the "programmed" funds re-balance their portfolios, and on any of the other dips. S2 thought one or a couple of big fund(s) were doing most of the selling last time to prepare for yearly filings. This makes sense to me. I also think a big hedge fund is playing with the small amount of float out there shaking out the scared money and collecting all the expired options. Yet, through it all, we never crossed below that low 15 point. Someone always stepped in to support it because it was getting too cheap to pass up.
Thanks to Cramer, we no longer have Cramerica involved with this stock. That alone could account for why there are only 300+ holders of the stock? I'm sure his team is following this company, and if MRVL delivers like we think they will, and Cramer follows his own rules, he will be changing his position on MRVL by the middle of next year. Then watch what happens to the stock price.
To put it simply, IMO, SS knows he is safer and in better control now as opposed to cutting a deal that will take him out of the lab and put him in financial and legal meetings, with less financial control of his company. Unless he gets some type of pressure, it will business (mom & pop style) as usual for him. ...and just remember we need SS for his technical expertise and the team/talent he brings to the company. Any shake up that upsets him or ousts him, would make everything fall apart. Smart money is very aware of this!
Just my humble opinion! Thanks for all the info you, S2, et al bring to this table. I enjoy sharing my thought and opinion with all of you!
Thanks,
DJ
If the CC is going to be bad as last time, I vote they move it to Thanksgiving! :o)
This way no one will listen to it. There won't be any analyst's questions to fumble through and we'll just have to read the transcript to get the information. This is much better solution then the debacle we had last quarter! Who wants to call IR?
DJ
iPhone production estimates higher. I didn't see this posted yet so I thought I throw it out there...
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Apple Inc (AAPL.O) has prepared plans to nearly double its iPhone production in the fourth quarter, financial news Web site TheStreet.com reported, citing people familiar with the company.
The plan calls for making 2.7 million iPhones next quarter, up from the 1.54 million originally targeted, the report said. Apple's plans now call for 4.8 million iPhones to be produced this year, up from the 3.6 million previously targeted, the report said.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20070919/tc_nm/apple_iphone_dc;_ylt=Atso77zdJPJzZUeE2knNeu1k24cA
Did we factor these numbers into our estimates already? Is this old news or new news? Lakers?
DJ
I normally don't disagree with you guys, but this time I do.
IMO many of the "high profile/close to home" economic data is starting to become negative and is being hyped by media. This big cut will help to change perception and ease credit to the consumer. In essence, this is a PR move by the FED. It should also protect the spending during this holiday season which the retailers need to make their profits.
As smalls states, the US consumer doesn't seem to be stopping, but I think if the FED didn't cut, eventually the spending would come to a screeching halt that would be catastrophic to the US economy. S2 pointed out that historically a Fed Fund rate of 4.75-5% is consider neutral, so basically we are at neutral. Even if we get another .25 in Oct., we're still close to the neutral. I don't see this FED going below 4.25% (unless a major even occurs), because inflation is too important to them. They know what can happen, even if the general public doesn't get it. To me, this is just letting a little pressure out of the pot so it doesn't explode. The consumers that are in trouble will get a little relief, hopefully this will start to unwind the housing/credit mess we are in, especially the people that are on the fringe. Hopefully the consumer can "purchase" us out of this mess. This message should also be welcomed by business because they can continue or resume their growth plans which in turn should keep the markets happy.
As to MRVL, I think the stock is being held down on purpose, especially here in the short term. Maybe its options related, maybe an attempt at a MBO, but as S2 stated, the stock is currently broken. In any case, unless mgt is doing this on purpose, it should break out with the next CC. The rate cut should only help MRVL sell more product this holiday season!
Just my humble opinion.
Good luck all,
DJ
I think the mobile referred to in the article means laptops, not small PDAs or Smartphones.
Currently I need to use software to perform these types of functions on the hand-held devices. If the operating system fails, then this software doesn't work, but many of these devices have a "factory reset" which helps a little bit if the device is/was backed up.
Having a hardware function to do this would interesting for both Corporations and the wireless carriers/providers. That's why I think this platform would be a total home run, while the PC OEM business is going to take a whole lot of selling by MRVL and then the PC manufactures to make this profitable.
Although, it is very cool technology!
DJ
This is really going to depend on the PC manufactures and what machines the technology lands in.
Let's face it, Dell and HP have to implement this in their business lines for it to be successful. MRVL has to sell this to the big boys for it to really mean anything for their bottom line. Corporations probably will not changes vendors just for this technology.
Now, that said... If this product can be used on the Xscale platform (in the handhelds) it will be a home run! (but I don't think it is designed for it)
DJ
I didn't hear what he said this morning. Is he predicting 8% 10YR bonds because he thinks a recession upon us? or for some other reason?
TIA,
DJ
I think that realmoney post explains it better than I could.
DJ
MRVL FEB08 $17.50 CALLS I'm trying to fathom the selling of all these calls? This is some serious money betting that MRVL is under 17.50 in FEB08? What's the possibility that most of these are covered? The thought of those options being exercised blows my mind.
I think most of us on this board have MRVL in the mid $20s by that time? Are we missing something? Can a fund or group of funds keep the price down (manipulation) that low?
I guess if they miss the next qtr numbers and deliver the same awful CC, then these might be a winner, but something is fishy here?
DJ
All the negatives may be gone by the next CC. I think people and analysts are beginning to realize (and bet via the calls) that all the negatives in the numbers could be corrected as early as this next qtr CC.
Even if the management is the same (and the CC presentation is shabby), if ALL the numbers are good, (GM, tax rate, revenue)and the guidance rocks, the stock will be on its way. If they hit 2 qtrs in a row, $30 shouldn't be too far off.
....but if any of the numbers come up short, we get hammered again, probably testing that 15.25 level again.
The street wants to see the numbers this qtr. IMO
DJ
Cramer picked both of them (RIMM & AAPL) yesterday as part of his "Fantasy" stocks. Most of his picks push up after hours and the next day or two.
I believe they were listed under his wide receiver category.
DJ
Lakers, I own both the Netgear (MRVL Tog Dog preN) router and the wireless card that matches. Both work very well! Even my wife's wireless Intel card works nicely with the router when it is in compatibility mode. The configuration interface on the router could be better, but I almost never have to touch it since I have tuned to my needs.
These products actually pushed me to look at MRVL for an investment! Now if only we are in the Cisco products???...
DJ
I agree with S2, but I also think the big boys will keep this pinned in the 17s for Sept. options expiration.
Like last month, I think the big boys want this pinned for options expiration. There's a lot of money for the taking if those options expire worthless.
We should start getting the teardowns and new analysts opinions in the near future. Once the new earnings season starts and companies that MRVL supplies to report, then, the buyers should step in (IMO very quickly).
DJ
Jobs DOWN 4000. Jun/Jul revised lower...
This should secure at least a .25 pt decrease by the Fed.
There may even be a 20-30% chance for .50 with those numbers.
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts. It might actually pop up knowing that a rate decrease is coming.
DJ
Does Apple's iPod touch have Bluetooth?
I'm not sure if this was posted yet, but this would be nice for the bottom line if it is true and if it is the MRVL chip!
Lakers, any news on this?
http://www.engadget.com/2007/09/06/does-apples-ipod-touch-have-bluetooth/
Cisco Launches 802.11n Wi-Fi Products
http://news.yahoo.com/s/nf/20070905/tc_nf/55081;_ylt=AhgQILn1qy7RkzkzCbFvBGYE1vAI
Does anybody know what chip is in this??? If it is the MRVL Top Dog platform that would be awesome! It says they tested with Intel, but it doesn't mention anything about Intel inside. I'm just not sure which company is in the Cisco products.
DJ
What happens if the Fed does NOT cut???
IMO the market will take another 3%+ haircut as it looks like almost everyone is expecting at least a qtr point in Sep. (Actual the Fed Holding might help MRVL if $$$ continues to fly to tech for safety)
I don't think Uncle Ben wants to cut, but I think the Fed will have to this time around. It's a good thing that the last set of inflation numbers were decent. This is gonna be interesting!
DJ
Are we all overlooking the obvious?
The blackberry 8700g should already be on sale in China (or very close to it) In either case MRVL should have been pumping out the processors (PXA901 @ $16-$19 each Lakers? ) for some time already (hint the nice jump in rev last qtr???) If RIMM sells 2 mil of these things in China in the 3rd qtr, MRVL should easily make the rev est numbers. Not to mention the addl iPhone sales.
With all the people over there (who love tech toys!) and this being the initial offering of the device / service, I bet RIMM will sell many many more than that! We need to find out if these device are flying off the shelves over there!!!
This may also explain the addl tax issue?
Could it be this simple??? This could be a runaway qtr for MRVL!
Thoughts on the topic are welcomed.
DJ
Blackberry in China:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/6272162.stm
jb, I've stated before that I think (IMO) Sehat will step down as CEO (but continue to be the Chairman and Tech Leader of the company) Others talk of a MBO or LBO, but I think this will happen before either of those.
Even though MRVL has finished its own options investigation, I believe the SEC's is still on-going and I'm sure this has to spreading Sehat thin. Many of us who listened to the CC (some posted it on this board) thought that Sehat seemed like he wanted to be somewhere else or he had somewhere to go that day.
The more I think about it, I keep coming to the conclusion that Sehat is looking for a CEO that will run the company (with all its current headaches) and let him focus on the R&D which he loves. He's been at the helm long enough to have had his "taste" of the CEO job, and he just needs to find someone that shares his vision of technology. I think some of his top managers will be upset but he has to go outside the company to fill this roll. He needs to do this to put the options scandal behind him and give the company credit with the street again.
In my last post on this topic, I thought one of the ex AMD/ATI guys would be a good fit and I still do.
I saw this link and I thought I would post it to start a discussion about several of the topics from the interview. One being the "other opportunity" part (maybe a new CEO) and the other being how this might change the thinking at the Wi-Fi alliance which could affect MRVL? (I don't know much about this alliance though)
I placed a couple of bets on MRVL and stumbled on to this board which has been a joy to read. I just started putting my 2 cents in (more like a peso compared to the knowledge here!)
Good Luck! Thanks,
DJ
Hanzlik Out As Wi-Fi Alliance Chief
Article Link below...
Interesting Excerpts:
Hanzlik left because "he had a good opportunity at another organization," Hanley said. She declined to specify the specific organization. Hanzlik himself has not been reached for comment.
Interviewed in late July, Hanzlik gave no indication of his intention to move on from the Wi-Fi Alliance. "It's a very exciting time," he said, speaking of the emergence of new dual-mode devices including the iPhone from Apple, "with several new high-profile phones with Wi-Fi supported by the carriers and offering truly integrated solutions."
http://www.informationweek.com/news/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=201802500&cid=nl_IWK_daily
S2,
Do you think the big boys can/will pin Sep expiration @ 17 - 17.50, like they did in Aug?
I'm thinking they will use any news from Apple or the tech cnfs to raise (or let it rise by itself) the price up to the mid 17's and then pin it there to make all those contracts expire worthless again, like they did in Aug.
I'm thinking (IMO) that they will try this again?
TIA - Your opinion is always appreciated!
DJ