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There is a chance that the seller (or sellers) did so due to tax reason. If that's the case, they should be gone by now.
My favorite posts for the day
I came to the board today thinking it is a holiday, and the board would be dominated by well-wish messages, and self congratulation notes for a fantastic 2009.
I did see those - which are nice to read. But more importantly I read quite a few thoughtful, forward-looking messages.
Some of my favorites for the day:
- CSP's writing on PEG and the response messages from others.
- Burp's thoughts on 2010 Strategy
- Justin's message on Year of Uplisting
- Discussion and compilation of top ten list for sub 1.0 stocks
...
This board has a really good start for 2010. Congratulations for you all, and have a prosperous new year and new decade.
Transformation of Chinese cities
Chad, I had the same amazed feeling over the skylines of Chinese cities when I clicked the links sent out by Burp earlier.
I had a trip to China before Thanksgiving, and visited 8 cities in the coastal areas. I was totally wowed by the development in those cities - major transformation over the last ten years.
All the local officials I met spoke proudly of grand plans for their cities. The freeways, express trains, and now the high speed bullet trains link the cities in such ways that were never before, creating a lot of opportunities for urbanization and growth for next 5 to 10 years.
Thats why I am gradually moving all my investments to Chinese stocks.
Thedivot- Thanks for the warrant post.
I was looking for information like this. Your post is very timely.
ECSC Top 10 List Rocks
All,
Congratulation for a successful year.
If you had invested evenly in the ECSC top ten 10 amigos (11 stocks), you rate of return for December 2009 would be an amazing 38.12%.
http://chinastock.homelinux.com:8080/content/ecsc-index
Top performer for the month: NEP, 77.8%, followed by 53.3% for TSTC, and 48.3% for BSPM.
Only two stocks returned less than 20%: CSGH (6%), and LTUS (18%).
All other stocks gained anywhere from 20% to 41%. LPIH and CREG had nice run over last three days.
Those numbers are especially impressive compared to the broad market, NASDAQ ~ 6.7%, S&P, 2.8%, Dow, 1.97%, and Shanghai index -0.2%.
CIWT - About Dalian
Burp,
CIWT definite looks like a great stock.
My comment is about Dalian's population:
Dalian has a population of 6m, of which about 2m is in the city proper, and 4m in surrounding areas.
Since 1990, a city in China is becoming an administrative area that contains the city proper (the city itself) and surrounding counties (which also have smaller cities, towns, and rural area). This was needed to promote the urbanization in a mostly rural country.
When I calculate the potential market, I usually take off the rural population due to their low income.
Still, there is plenty of growth for CIWT within Dalian, and the same technology/process can also be used in other cities.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dalian
Bought some ALN yesterday, and more today.
Do you have any DD for the forward PE?
CSR -
CSR is a great company.
I made some nice dough when the stock went from ~$5 to ~$26 in year 2007. Then I re-entered the stock on its way down, was doing OK the second time until the financial meltdown in Oct 2008 wipe out all my prior CSR profits.
One problem with CSR was its toxic financial deal with Citadel, which gave Citadel the incentive to short the stock. The Citadel deal is gone now through a painful dilution to the stock two month ago. Another is the whole GAAP/non GAAP earning reporting mess (still persists)
When this earning report mess is gone (hopefully sometime in next qtr or so,) CSR can start flying again.
I still have a small stake in CSR, but I do not expect big gains until next qtr or so.
JoTeng,
I am with you on LPIH.
My only regret on LPIH is that I did not get the chance to get more shares of LPIH. I had plenty of dry powder.
The S-1 was just the second shoe. Its dropping has the opposite effect.
As I am writing, LPIH is at 2.67, blasting through all the technical resistances.
LPIH S1 was priced
As I stated three days ago, it was priced into the share when PPS dropped from 2.5 to 1.6.
That's why when the shoe dropped, it went higher.
Congratulation for the longs. Event at 2.55, it is still DIRT CHEAP and with a lot more potential.
LPIH 2.55, +7.14%
It is 52 wk high.
Traderfan: About SBAY PE ratio
Somehow I read the 10K, I got the conclusion that SBAY's PE ratio for 2009 is about 2.3.
Current PPS = $12.05, EPS = 5.33, so the PE ~ 2.3.
I then started checking the total outstanding shares, the story is very funny here:
The 10K says 1.8m, Schwab quotes as 1.8m, Quotemedia.com displays as 2.3m, google 2.48M, MSN 2.48 Mil,
and AOL 179.86 M
So the average is ...
--- from 10K----
Inside the 10K from SBAY, it has the following table:
2009 2008 Increase/(Decrease)
Revenues $ 47,987 $ 29,172 $ 18,815
Cost of Sales 24,642 20,220 4,422
Gross Profit 23,345 8,952 14,393
Operating Expenses 10,525 3,972 6,553
Income From Operations 12,820 4,980 7,840
....
Earnings per Common Share
- Basic $ 5.33 $ 2.47
- Fully Diluted $ 5.32 $ 2.47
Weighted Average Common Share Outstanding
- Basic 1,836,217 1,532,405
- Fully Diluted 1,839,230 1,532,405
Chad, congratulate on your positive return today.
I am kind of curious though. With the Chinese small caps flying high, and so many stocks with good fundamentals, why choose the 4x leverage on a day trading basis? One event could wipe out the profits (and the principles) totally.
Have you compared your return to the ECSC "index" so far this month?
A "buy and hold" strategy based on top ten Amigos (11 stocks) will result in a profit of 21% last Monday, and 31% end of day yesterday, definitely more today.
You can see Rama's chart for the ECSC's return, or this chart for last week's ECSC performance:
http://chinastock.homelinux.com:8080/content/ecsc-10-amigo-top-stocks-beat-market-wide-margin
CSP - I bought CHCG
I bought 20K shares of CHCG, contributing to 10% of the today's volume (as of now). The stock is really beaten down and have not place to go but up.
If it dipped again, I will buy more.
I sold NEP at $9.5 this morning. Now I am moving my money toward the next runners.
CCME - Good entry point?
I am not following CCME closely. Seems that CCME is down majorly last few days (-20% from recent high).
I am deciding if this is a good entry point. Alternative is to wait for the warrant issue to sort out.
Anyone have good insight here.
LPIH - 2.37, near high of the day.
LPIH is at $2.37, after slight technical pull back from the HOD at $2.40. That's a 10% up.
Congratulate to those who hold onto the stock.
Right now, LPIH is the cheapest stock to own among the top ten Amigos. It is trading at less than 4 times the forward PE, and there are enough room for growth in 2010.
GCHT - any DD data?
GCHT seems like a very good stock to own. It is part of play based on new energy/carbon concept.
However, I could not find any good earning and PE data over Yahoo and Quotemedia.
Anybody cares to share any data here?
Thanks, CSP,
Greatly appreciated.
I purchased NEP following one of your post. It is doing great now.
Tax selling - Any bottom fishing ideas?
Does anybody have any good, solid stock that may suffer from tax selling? Please post.
Last week I purchased TBV and FUQI at the bottom. Two weeks ago I was trying to get UTA at $8s but my bid was not accepted.
Thanks.
LPIH - China's energy sector easily gets PE ratio 15.
Quote:
"china stocks in LPIH's sector never get 15 PEs"
I almost wanted to agree with you, then I checked the PEs for Chinese stocks in the oil industry:
PTR (China Petro), PE ratio is 21
SNP, PE ratio is 19.
Also, the PEs for non-sexy small caps like UTA went to almost 20 (it settles for 13 right now.)
Those PE ratio boards well for Chinese energy small caps like NEP and LPIH.
For myself, I use a PE of 10 to estimate LPIH's future share price (my target: $5-$8 pps). But it would not hurt if the PE goes up to a similar range with its bigger brothers. LPIH is smaller but growing at a much faster rate (40% over the last two years, almost 100% expected next 12 months with the new facility)
When that happens, LPIH could see $10 to $15.
LPIH target price
Not sure where Zester's numbers come from. Nevertheless, his number is at least as valid as the $1.30 pps quoted by one of the nay-sayer here.
For a forward earning of $0.6 to $0.8 per share, multiplied by a reasonable PE ratio of 15x, you will get about $9 to $12 in one year. Considering the high demand for energy in China, it is conceivable that Longwei may build another facility after Guojiao. When that happens, PPS $17.26 is not out of reach.
Even if you think $9/$17 as kind of high, my own target price for LPIH is about $6 in one year. That is a forward PE of 10.
LPIH's current price of $2.09 is unreasonably low. I have been buying into this dip and will accumulate more when it dips further.
Some board members are concerned with the finance deal sealed a few months ago. Well, that has been priced into the share price already. The PPS dropped from $2.5 last time to $1.6 following the announcement two months ago. A stellar earning report from middle November brought it back over $2.
ECSC index
1) Broad market vs. specialized
If our index include only top names in the fashion of Dow, then we are creating a Dow like index. That is, we are not a broad market index for Chinese small caps like S&P, Russel 2000, and Shanghai composite is more or less broad market index.
2) Weighting -
If we only include top 10 amigos (or the expanded version.) Then our index will consist relative few stocks.
I would suggest equal weight for those stocks, that is, all stocks will consist of the same percentage at the stock of the index. Alternatively, we can weighting using market cap, or weight using popularity (votes). T
Dow more or less uses equal weighting, S&P, and Shanghai uses market cap for weighting.
3) Rebalance
If we are using a selective few stocks, then question will arise: if and when are we going to change the composition of the stocks (addition or removal of stocks). How and when are we going to rebalance the portfolio (the weight.)
Ratobranco,
I am all for building such an index. Let me know what I can do to help.
I have started to build such an index (if you may call it) with the top ten amigos. I am currently using the excel sheet to track the stock (using web query for those technically oriented.) If we start the index as 100 at the end of Nov 30, then the index is 127 at the Dec 21 (see the chart here)
http://chinastock.homelinux.com:8080/content/ecsc-10-amigo-top-stocks-beat-market-wide-margin
Hao is a more broad market index.
I have some. It should be a good play long term. The uplisting news today is also sweet.
LLFH PUDA will do well next year
This piece of news (in Chinese), basically stated that there is a shortage of electricity in five central provinces right now, and there will be definite increases in coal price next year.
http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/BREAKINGNEWS4/5325583.shtml
A lousy translated version (via google translation) is here:
http://translate.google.com/translate?js=y&prev=_t&hl=en&ie=UTF-8&layout=1&eotf=1&u=http://udn.com/NEWS/MAINLAND/BREAKINGNEWS4/5325583.shtml&sl=zh-CN&tl=en
JP Morgan buying China energy stocks.
They bought SNP, PTR, and Yazhou in HongKong market.
The energy stocks like NEP, LPIH, and LLFH should continue to do well past the new year.
http://chinastock.homelinux.com:8080/content/jp-morgan-long-china-energy-stocks
FUQI and UTA - the new value stock?
Just like FEED, those two stocks went up big time during the summer and then crashed during the fall.
Anybody have any comments for those two stocks? FUQI was as high as $32 PPS and traded at $16s yesterday.
CIIC up 93% for no apparent reason.
Anybody have any insight?
The company, China Infrastructure Investment Corp., operates a freeway in Henan province.
Today's vol is about 1.97m shares, way over the 30K shares average.
AAC - Please use IRA account if you decide to buy AAC
As I mentioned in my previous article, I decided not to buy.
But if you see value in it, then please buy using your IRA account.
Otherwise, you will be hit by uncle Sam (federal) and Sam Jr. (State and local) for taxes.
Assume an effective tax rate of 50% (Fed + state + local + ..), you are paid back up to $0.275 back to the gov for the dividend.
That means you are paying $.72 per share for a tiny share of the future company.
Trying to understand AAC
So far:
1) One share of AAC will get a 0.55 divident
2) Own a share of 2.4% in the new company.
- Post merge and post finance, the SinoCoke will own about 77.4%, financiers will own 20%, and current AAC shareholders own 2.4%
The stock is trading at about $1 now, so $0.45 is the actual price for a tiny percentage*2.4%.
I am staying away for now.
Grreeen: Great job on CSIQ
My personal experiences with CSIQ are all about timings - one good and one bad.
In early summer, I was in CSIQ around $5.5, and sold about one month later for about $15. I kept watching it for 3-4 months but eventually dropped it from my watch list in early November.
My dropping of CSIQ triggered its latest climbing: As soon as I dropped it from my list, CSIQ went from $14 to $29, in almost straight line.
Something does not add up here. Remember that there are normally very complex share structure in China, especially for foreign listed companies. The Shanghai-traded Yasheng does not automatically equal to US-traded Yasheng. If Shanghai's Yasheng contains the same listed entity as US listed Yasheng, that is, they have the same revenue and profits, then it easily qualifies for listing in one of the major stock exchanges such as NASDAQ/Amex (if not NYSE.)
Sometime a company may list different part of the business in different exchanges. Shanghai listed company is called Gansu Yasheng, whereas US pinkie is called Yasheng group.
I am trying to find the connections between those two.
Many ECSC members here beat the market big time.
For example, joenatural has a 2700% return this year - according to his ibox here:
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=9383
I assume many other board members also have good returns, especially those who had the foresight to buy SIAF at $0.009
Need for middle men such as LPIH CNAM
Rotobranco - I think CSykes answered your questions.
Since China is growing in such a rate, even the big two oils (SNP/PTR) need help in the foreseeable future.
In addition, there is a long term need for LPIH based on the following facts:
-
- existence of independent refineries in China (hundreds of them)
- existence of independent gas stations (thousands)
- plus, LPIH distributes oils to power stations and other big users
For CNAM:
There are hundreds, if not thousands, of steel smelters all over China. CNAM will have its place for a long period of time.
One possible risk for CNAM is that the Chinese government is pushing for consolidations in the steel industry. So this may have an impact on CNAM customers.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601012&sid=aRZA8YS5Jiu0
arco1982: That was not Glen's post.
The link you gave was not Glen's post. I put it there.
Please do not flame Glen for it.
For your information: The site (China+1) has a very simple purpose. As an investor of Chinese small caps, I found that there were a dearth of information on the web. As the says go, necessity is the mother of invention. So I built the site for myself. The site was intended as private, as a result, I put port number :8080 on the URL to limit traffic.
The site was built before I found this board.
JoTeng, the article is not so unsual.
I was in Shanghai about four weeks ago, when a cold spell hit much of China.
The TV news widely reported, with real time footage, the shortage of natural gas at the time. Natural gas powered taxis waited for as much as 8 hours in Wuhan for refills. (I did not realize those exists until I saw them on the TV). There were talks on the web/newspaper/TV that the big two oils (SNP and PTR) had under-invested in the gas infrastructure for the last five years, creating a shortage.
Does anybody know of any small caps that provide products and services in the areas of gas equipment, exploration, and transportation?
Compiled list of stocks suggested to Glen
I am compiling the list of the stocks suggested to Glen for this article. My intent is to create a watch list for myself for further research/DD.
XODG
PPS 1.45, down trend for last few days
Extremely bullish by some ECSC members
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=16409
XODG is a LED story. Energy saving in the energy thirsty country is a go. It is also a carbon play.
GRVY
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=15836
Not exact a China play (the company is based in S. Korea)
Gravity is a developer and publisher of online games. Gravity's principal product, Ragnarok Online(tm), is a popular online game in many markets, including Japan, Taiwan and Thailand, and is currently commercially offered in 38 markets.
Good: low PE of ~ 5
Bad declining revenue
JADA
Jade Art Grp. (BB) (USBB:JADA)
Current pps $0.425
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/board.aspx?board_id=11964
CHBT
Latest PPS $14.25, PE 15.91
Pro: x10 capacity (150 ton) expansion complete, paid for and testing to begin commercial production in late Dec (hey that's now isn't it). Will begin another x10 capacity expansion (150 ton) expansion in Jan 2010 (hey that's about now too isn't it). Guiding revenue increase at least 50% in 2010 (sandbagging).
Cons: relatively high PE
TSTC
Telestone Technologies Corporation
Pprovides wireless communications coverage solutions
One of the members' favorite in ECSC
Unique product in WFDS, amazing growth in China and expanding to US and South America, expecting blowout numbers for this quarter.
NASDAQ listed with a small float and current market cap is only $ 180M at $ 17.31 a share. It can easily be a $ 50 stock with the current growth rate.
SIAF.PK
Sino Agro
Provides agri feeds for farmers
Interesting business model: for example, Sanjiang is a joint venture between SIAF and local government in western China. It sells feeds to farmers who raise cows, and then purchase the beef castle from farmers for sales in more affluent coastal cities.
Another amazing story is the the stock went to less than one cent ($0.009) this year, and bounced back to about $1, for a 10,000% gain.
WEMU
Current PPS is $5.25. Current PE 16.06, and forward P/E of 3.25
U.S. based China manufacturer, serving the solar energy, aerospace, telecommunications, automotive, and electronics industries
Probably one of the cheapest solar play. Solar division has a revenue of $31m.
Revenue Growth for the nine months ended September 30, 2009 increased 25% and net income before tax increased 85% compared to the same period in 2008.
The company is guiding for 2010 revenues of $100m and net income of $5.75 million
CNAM
PPS ~ $3.
Expected to grow huge in 2010 because their scrap metal facility is now ready and being tested and sometimes very early in Q1 they start with production. It has the capacity of 1 million metric tons of scrap metal and the price per metric ton was around 390 bucks last time I checked.
With 100% capacity we are talking about potential of 400 million in revenues and if you only take 5% net margin we are talking about potential 2 bucks in EPS once all is up and running!
Their traditional business does 50 cents EPS in 2009 as well on it's own.
Some very good chance for uplisting within the next few months.
Pharma Stocks: Good theme for an article touching on the Chinese approved drug list, western v. eastern medicine, fragmentation, aging population, opportunity...
BSPM, LTUS, CHME, SKBI, etc.
Past misplays like AOB.
Agro Stocks
YONG, FEED, CGA, CKGT
Growth stocks:
Another interesting theme might be tremendous nuclear growth, CPQQ, CHGI
Energy Stocks:
NEP, LPIH, CBEH, etc.
CO (formerly CNDWF.OB)
China Cord Blood;
Largest cord blood banking operator in China. The company provides cord blood collection, laboratory testing, hematopoietic stem cell processing, and stem cell storage services.
Moved from OTCBB to NYSE
Business model: Expectant parents pay the co to process and store the cord blood of their children at birth for potential future use in medical treatment.
Q2 (Sep) revenue rose 30.4% yr/yr to $9.4 mln, with huge operating margin of 37%.
Subscribers currently total 105,812 with 21,752 new subs signed up in 1H09, up 47% yr/yr.
Pros: China's one child policy, Chinese govt's "one license per region" policy for cord blood operators. Penetration is low with great growth potential: As people become more fluent, more would pay for cord blood banking services for its presumed health benefit.
Cons: a confusing concept in US. Many people may be turned off by the stock just by its name. A pretty high share count (66.1 mln) makes the P/E valuation somewhat high (no ests) and it results in a $380 mln market cap, which is on the high side for a co with $18 mln in revs for the 6 mos ended Sep 30.
CALI
Transitioning from low-margin seller of autos in China to high-margin "Autotrader"-like internet service/advertising player.
Web-driven growth is growing like wildfire. I get giddy when I think of the inherent value of an early-mover Autotrader-of-China stock.
CHOP
Chinese specialty steel player isn't just another CPSL or GSI, due to end-uses of their steel. Looks cheap going-forward.
CIHD.OB
Rapidly growing Chinese fertilizer and specialty chemical firm.
Impending uplist...until their share price dropped below $3...oops!
Despite that, one has to like the fertilizer macro story in China, but the wildcard is the new deal with Sanofi-Aventis for one of their spec chemicals.
CBTE
Crossing t's and dotting i's on finalization of merger with highly profitable Chinese peptide firm; priced as if the merger is going to fail, but CBTE mgmt says otherwise (of course).
This feels like a $3+ stock if/when the merger is consumated, trading at .40 today.
CFQCF.OB/CFQWF.OB
This Chinese SPAC has finalized share purchase agreement with highly profitable Chinese machinery company. Deal will need to be agreed by shareholders, but the diamond in the rough here are the warrants, which should have almost $3 intrinsic value to them but are trading at around 1/3 that.
BBCZ.PK
A pinkie...
Yet another Chinese fertilizer company which has been hamstrung by legal difficulties preventing investment in their own growth.
Well, their legal issues are finally behind them, and with a new cash hoarde (>$3M) plus a substantial investment in China Pediatrics (~ another $3M), the stock is trading below cash/investments and should be set to emerge from the brink.
At .21 there's some good risk/reward there, although I've been unsuccessful in getting responses from mgmt.
CCME
http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=44223981
website: http://www.gstv.cc
Q3 PR: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/China-MediaExpress-Holdings-bw-500656408.h...
(old) presentation: http://yahoo.brand.edgar-online.com/displayfilinginfo.aspx?FilingID=6666...
Competitors include FMCN and VISN, all at P/E's of 20+ (With analyst targets at P/E's of 25 or so, they just upgraded for 2010)...Competitors having much slower growth of course. This is a very very hot industry for 2010, ad dollars are surging into China with their whole focus on consumption increase.
CCME (via Warrants) P/E right now for 2009 is around 6.2 (Not including warrant dilution since they cannot be used in 2009). For 2010, including all warrants exercised (35M+ more cash in balance sheet too), my estimates have them at $2-2.4 EPS (Assumes they make between 70m and their 84m earn-out) so that puts them at a forward P/E of 4.4 to 5.25.
Truly a cash-generating cow type company though, so should have plenty of cash on its books. Oh and they just added DTT as their auditors.
Warrant leverage is very nice while it lasts, should be gone in a few months though (sadly they will force us to exercise into the common by February/March).
Note: The page is not very clean when copied to this board. You can see a cleaner version of the list using this link:
http://chinastock.homelinux.com:8080/content/watchlist-2010
Orient Paper ORPN financials:
I am trying to glean together the earning estimates for ORPN. The stock is to be uplisted tomorrow and should get some attention.
ORPN
Current EPS and PE (TTM):
Quotemedia.com: $2.10, PE = 4.60
yahoo does not show any PE
Google shows a PE of 8.68. (Rick Pearson believed it is wrong since)
MSN: 8.71
2010 EPS and PE:
Orient Paper's guidance is an earning of $18.0 million for fiscal year 2010, provided the digital photo paper project proceeds as planned. If so, the 2010 PE is about 7.5 excluding any dilution.
Rick Pearson of thestreet.com has much more aggressive projection for earnings He believe that even when at PPS of $20, the stock may still have a PE of 8.7 for 2010.
Third quarter 2009 highlights: (reported in Nov 16)
- Revenue for the third quarter of 2009 increased 67.3% year-over-year to approximately $30.5 million
-- Gross profit increased 107.4% year-over-year to approximately $7.1 million
-- Gross margin was 23.3%, up 4.5 percentage points year-over-year
-- Operating income rose 107.0% year-over-year to approximately $6.6 million
-- Net income increased 107.1% year-over-year to approximately $4.8 million, or $0.20 (post reverse split) per diluted share
Here a
Second quarter results (report in May)
- Revenues are 32% higher ($17,837,478) this quarter in comparison to the same quarter last year ($13,528,033).
- Gross Profit was 34% higher this quarter ($3,336,438) in comparison to the same quarter last year ($2,483,529).
- Net income was 59% higher this quarter ($2,298,600) versus the same quarter last year ($1,444,260).
- Cash & cash equivalents were 508% higher this quarter ($6,531,754) versus the same quarter last year ($1,283,834).
FEED - Show no strength lately.
Is it because of the tax selling before the end of the year?
Disclosure: I am still long on Feed and still hold the shares.
ORPN uplisting is a very good news.
ORPN is another value stock that should do well next year.
Unfortunately Dec 16 is tomorrow, and there is no time window for the uplisting effect prior to the listing. The stock dropped two days in a row. Hopefully it will do well after tomorrow.