Everyone still underestimates this move. The economic expansion is for real. Just came out with car sales forecast. this December will be the best ever. the whole year will also be the best ever. Confirms bank loosening and consumers getting back into the old habit of borrowing. In fact the latest GDP showed some interesting things. While income has slipped real domestic consumption increased by 2 percent. That means low rates, low borrowing costs, and slight reduction in savings was the driver. This alone will drive the market higher for a short while anyway. Longer term wages have to rise.
Powerful moves backed by fundamentals. The next bear market might just be on higher rates and over expectation on earnings. there is no data that shows we are near a final blow off. An intermediate one for sure, but I would but that off for a couple of months.
Between now and February the economic data can turn. We shall see which way it goes. Most, I am assuming, still think the "recovery" is tenuous or faked. I leave that open till more data comes in.
No big drop is seen for months yet. In fact we might get a 300 point surge early this week. Odds maker should put a 4 to 1 upside till New Year.
The minimum we should see is 1910 on SPX before the bear come out of hibernation. The shallow recent drop and very quick snap back confirms the strength of this market.
Gold confirmed this move as real. The new low target is around 1,000.
I do not see any drop below 1770 till be find the top of this run. That would indicate to me that we still have months to go.
Betting against this market trend now is dangerous.
