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A responses to your points.

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gdl   Monday, 02/24/14 03:13:53 PM
Re: JLS post# 1982
Post # of 2000 
A responses to your points.
Housing is not experiencing price increase and it is not related to weather. inventory is once again building up. banks already have the spread needed to lend and they are doing just that. There is no reason why rates will go above 3 percent on 10 year note anytime soon. The good news is behind us. Wage growth has nothing to do with technological advances, only job growth does. We are already a service nation where the manufacturing jobs are already high tech. Once again there is nothing going forward that will change this mix to improve this situation. Consumer debt is once again revamping at a high rate. we don't need anymore interest rate hikes for banks to lend. Auto loans are already in a dangerous territory with very questionable loans. Credit card use is way up, home values have peaked for now, and savings is once again going back where it was prior to the crash.

You have to look at the high productivity today combined with low costs and ask yourself how much better will it get? If you increase revenue without increasing wages or other offsetting assets you only create a more indebted individual. Look at how much debt is held by individuals and how much it increased over last 4 months. that is the major reason for this stock market spurt. Will it continue?

As for your notion of jobs being taken over by outside nerds, just not so. In fact the unemployment rate for college grads in age group of 25 to 35 is 4 percent. We are the envy of the world on high-tech and other nations constantly steal our proprietary secrets. The outsourced jobs are JUST to save money on wages. You keep making excuses as to why companies pay so little. Sorry it just doesn't make sense. I am in a field where they do it now all the time. Computer programmers are abundant here in US. In fact we are usually more adapt at making change and much more productive. The cost savings is too much to pass up even with the domestic advantages.

I have never seen any legitimate reason why companies, and top 5 percent individuals, have managed to reap huge profits on the backs of everyone else. The rules and lax laws is continuing to favor this group. I see no evidence otherwise. In fact the cost cutting was exclusively on the backs of the poor and out of work. You would think that common sense dictates that you prop up the middle class and poor to help revamp this economy. Instead we are heading for a caste system.

I will guarantee you that the result of all this will not be pretty. If tomorrow, or 3 years down the line, we will fall into another depression era. Enjoy the good profits while you can. Indeed we are going into the last wave before a 20 percent haircut. SPX of 1950 should easily be reached this round. Maybe 2000+. It should also happen in a very short period of time, perhaps 2 months. My long term take is that we hit a bear run this year followed by 2 more years of growth. After that it seems very unlikely given the political direction is so obvious.

You could very well be right to stay invested, but your assumptions are just not based on real verifiable data, and not based on past experiences. As for inflation, it will not happen for a long while, no matter what the economy does. If we do manage to heat up, the world market could not sustain a whole 100 basis point move from here, let alone real inflation.

In the future you should read the government data relating to credit, debt, savings, etc... Try to be objective and not look to cherry-pick reports that conform to your notion of the world. This is not the start of the 80's. We can't sustain this debt growth going forward. something's got to give.

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