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I understand your trading style and the debate

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gdl   Monday, 02/17/14 01:43:36 PM
Re: JLS post# 1932
Post # of 2000 
I understand your trading style and the debate can go on forever without any truly "right" way to invest. The chicken or the egg theory. technical vs. fundamental. In this environments however I become very cautious since all prior debacles didn't recover permanently as quickly as this did. I am extremely skeptical we end 2014 in the black. The moves were too strong based on unprecedented productivity and gross margin gains. I do not advocate another economic collapse here. Just based on future expectations and an over reach on earnings gains for the future.

We shall see. In fact currently I expect the rally to continue.

Perhaps a short retrace between 1790 - 1805 before the next leg up.

I just wouldn't be as sanguine about trading in an environment where real damage to the economy is still possible, and can occur rather quickly. Housing recovery allowed all the other peripheral segments to recover as well. It is stalling here, even though I don't see a major problem. Lack of growth is all that is needed to stall the earnings picture. I am a cautious person. Perhaps too cautious.

If the market hits my upper targets in next month or 2 I would be betting heavily against further gains, regardless of the data.

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