Gold producers are approaching 2026 with what Jefferies describes as one of the most supportive environments the group has seen in years. In its latest sector outlook, the firm reaffirmed its positive view on gold equities and unveiled an updated roster of preferred names.

Analyst Fahad Tariq wrote in the preview, “We remain bullish on gold equities in ’26 given attractive valuations, even as we are neutral on gold.” He emphasized that miners appear well positioned to “expand margins… and print more FCF YoY in ’26,” noting that meaningful cost inflation has yet to emerge.

Jefferies anticipates that the same macro trends that underpinned bullion through 2025 will continue into the new year, referencing “de-dollarization, the US fiscal situation… macro uncertainty, central bank buying, physical gold ETF demand, and Tether’s gold demand.”

Although the firm does not expect a significant further decline in real rates, it argues that “gold is the only true safe haven left.” Its base case assumes gold prices will trade within a stable range through 2026, with any consolidation still viewed as “positive for the sector.”

The report underscores that 2025 was the year “free cash flow finally arrived,” highlighting a roughly 61% rise in gold prices alongside a surge of about 140% in the GDX.

Tariq added that the sector remains “extremely healthy,” underscoring strong balance sheets—nine of the 12 companies under Jefferies’ coverage hold net cash positions—as well as “strong margins” and higher shareholder returns via dividends and buybacks.

Looking ahead to 2026, Jefferies expects mild cost inflation, potential updates to reserve grades, and a pickup in M&A as cash continues to accumulate industrywide.

Among its top ideas is Barrick Mining (NYSE:B), described as “our top pick among the large-cap gold miners,” supported by an anticipated 12% free cash flow yield and several catalysts that could unlock further value.

The firm also points to Alamos Gold (NYSE:AGI) as a catch-up opportunity, praising its status as having “the highest quality portfolio among mid-cap gold miners.” Meanwhile, Jefferies argues that the valuation discount at Royal Gold (NASDAQ:RGLD) is “unwarranted.”

Barrick Mining stock price

Alamos Gold stock price

Royal Gold stock price

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