Shares of Gemini Space Station (NASDAQ:GEMI), the cryptocurrency exchange founded by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss, were up 0.2% in pre-market trading on Wednesday, September 17, 2025, after closing 13.5% lower the previous day at $28.13. Since going public last Friday, the stock has already fallen nearly 24%, erasing much of the initial excitement.

In its IPO, the company raised $425 million by pricing shares at $28, giving it a market valuation of $3.3 billion. The stock jumped to $45.89 at the open before closing its debut session at $32, a 14% gain over the offer price.

However, the early rally proved short-lived. Since the first-day peak, concerns have grown over the company’s fundamentals. Investors remain cautious given financial results that don’t yet justify the lofty valuation.

Gemini reported a net loss of $283 million in the first half of 2025, nearly double its $159 million loss for all of 2024.

Compass Point analyst Ed Engel noted that GEMI is trading at 26 times its annualized first-half revenue, compared with an average of 3.2 times for similar firms and about 4 times for the broader sector. He argued that such a premium “seems excessive given the current uncertainties.”

Engel estimated a fair value of $32.52 per share, implying the stock is overvalued at current levels. He warned that without clear signs of revenue growth or margin improvement, it will be difficult to justify such high multiples in a competitive market.

While Gemini has struggled, the broader sector has shown more resilience. Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) is up 1.3% for the week and 6.9% for the month, despite missing quarterly earnings estimates. Circle (NYSE:CRCL) gained 12.3% for the week, while Robinhood (NASDAQ:HOOD) slipped 3.6% despite beating revenue forecasts with $989 million.

Analysts suggest Gemini’s challenges stem more from its internal financial structure than from industry-wide conditions. Founded as a regulated exchange to compete with Coinbase, the company now faces the task of proving it can turn the visibility of its IPO into sustainable growth.

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