Replies to post #107114 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

It is quite possible that during a transition the indicator I use are poor indicators, yet they gave a pretty good signal at most of the local market bottoms in the last three years (always within two weeks), including last October (when I went into the bottom at about 10% cash or so). The bottom we had recently (March) simply did not give me the kind of indicators values where I felt it is safe to go to extremely low cash, since I am quite conservative in managing my funds, I did not jump in, sure, I missed an opportunity, but I did not miss the prior six pre bear market rallies. The way I see it, if it ain't broke, don't fix it, six out of seven is not too shabby. Thus gradually increasing exposure here is quite fine and conservative. Just took a very nice $2.50 from EXPE getting out here at $67.85...That is a conservative play...

Zeev

[kahlua]

<In my opinion you have placed to much emphasis on "wash out" sentiments and have missed the beginnings of a new bull market, cyclical if not secular> Surely you jest, the beginning of a secular bull market...? Sure this could be evolving into a cyclical bull market, although bullish sentiment is very extreme and many other indicators are very toppy, but that would be the best case scenario. I believe you underestimate the complacency of most investors who are still itching to be burned yet again. Case in point, my brother in law called me last night asking where to invest more money because he feels he's missing out on the "new bull". I won't bore you with other numerous examples but the bottom line is there is still a pervasive disconnect between reality and fantasy among the buy and hold investors. I won't even get into the fact that no secular bear has started with such ridiculously lofty valuations (p/s, p/d, p/e, p/b, etc.). But this is all imho.

Regards
kahlua