Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[mike_m]

In over thirty years of investing I never saw sentiment more devastated than in October of last year. Investors were capitulating everywhere. Pessimism was rampant. Never has more money been sitting on the sidelines in money markets paying next to nothing.

In my opinion you have placed to much emphasis on "wash out" sentiments and have missed the beginnings of a new bull market, cyclical if not secular. It was not painful for you because you do not short, and 30-50% in the market is better than nothing. Still, you continue to draw new lines in the sand that in turn are being crossed...

Your investment style is solid and has allowed you to thrive in a devastating market. I congratulate you for that. I don't see a chink in your armor. What you miss out on is in degrees of success not potential.

A number of folks have adapted your cautiousness (lest I say bearishness) to their investment style and have continued to short the market. That has been unfortunate for them as breadth indicators suggest that most stocks are in a solid uptrend.

I again maintain that the market is not acting like the bear rallies of the past three years. The activity is climbing a wall of worry on muted volume, it is rotating into sectors and is generally becoming overbought without suffering violent melt downs.

I predict that you will find that support lines will hold and that stocks will be generally rising for the next year or so.