Replies to post #106735 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[JohnVP]

how can there be a pullback when so many haven't got on board yet and eager to do so???

[TREND1]

Zeev
You wrote
So, while the Naz satisfied that condition, it may be lonely there and thus may not stay for long

Comment:
(1)$NYA(NYSE) has now gone above Dec 2002 high.
(2)That's the entire NY stock exchange.

[integrivest]

Thanks for your thoughts Ze'ev.

[techanalyst1]

There are quite a few dow components within spitting distance of new 52 week highs......... Ibm is within 50 cents, Mrk is less than two bucks away, PG 5 bucks, GE 4 dollars. Haven't looked at any others, but so many were hit toward the end of the bear (lots of people hiding out in them), I think it would take quite a move to get them back over their 52 week highs. These others though (ibm, mrk, ge) wouldn't take much at all.... just a little shove.

Anyway................. naz is gonna be at a 52 week high if it can maintain itself in the next month and get just a little more umph.

That should bring in more fund flows............ providing we aren't topping out and reduced volume might be a red flag.

Psychology seems to have shifted though and we still have a relatively high short interest.

I'm beginning to think Oct. 2002 was an important low (like the four year cycle low). Even though it was lower than 1998, it might have been as low as we go for a while.

Msft has been underperforming the naz for some reason.... up pennies for the year. Odd since dell is at a multi year high and ibm near it's 52 week high.

TA

[jetlag]

Zeev, why do leaders have to go up quickly to confirm the trend when they are also the last ones to fall when indexes drop?

On a different topic:
I've compared the ROI (small positive %) I made with the stocks I traded "dynamically" this year (swing and day trades, stop losses, etc), to the potential profit I would have made if I kept the same stocks all the way til today (the B&H strategy).
When possible I considered the B&H entry at when stock was bought at comparable levels of the indexes (around 1450 in Nasdaq that is) otherwise when I first bought the stock.

Beleive it or not overall B&H would have given by far better return in my case (there would be small individual losses as well), given the fact I was not present every day in trading and I also missed the local bottoms/tops, etc.

In the dynamic trades category -> around 400 buy/sell operations, with +- +-40 stocks, 80% Nasdaq based.

Of course the first conclusion is I'm a poor "dynamic" trader, but I'd also love to hear someone's else similar analysis if available (this is addressed in general to the board readers, not to Zeev in particular).

All the best/ jet

[SteveO]

Zeev,
52 week highs seem to be so much a product of what the last 52 weeks have been like. It seems to me that any use of this indicator must take into account what we are comparing to. Many of the 52 week highs were set early last year. As we lose those high readings from last Spring and start taking into account the big drop last June, 52 week highs will increase even if this market goes nowhere.

As for stocks that set new highs in January, 2003 or December of 2002, this rally has only run 8 weeks while the October 2002 rally lasted for about 13. The Feb/March, 2003 massacre erased much of those gains. It would be hard to believe that we could just tack back on those points lost in Feb/March in such a short period of time. If we did, the bears would be trumpeting that we have come too far too fast. :)

In sum, when there is a big, broad sell-off, stocks have a long way to go to make up for their losses. The bigger and broader the sell-off, the longer it will be until you see new highs. But, it is exactly these broad sell-offs that create the kind of capitulation that creates a strong bear market rally.

One writer I have a lot of respect for put his bear suit away for the time being. it is interesting that he sees this move as "different".
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