Replies to post #106506 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Joe Stocks]

>>DOW target = potential is there, never a bull, not till at least 2007/08 - until then a FULL BEAR.<<

Way too optimistic if you think this bear will end by 2007-2008. Take this to the bank...the bear will last until 2020 at the earliest. Probably closer to 2030. The boomers gave us the biggest boom in history...they will also give us the largest and longest bust. If the bear runs till 2007-08, then the bear will run for another two decades as the boomers navigate through retirement. As many under-estimated there poweer to buy, just as many will miiss the mark on their aggressiveness in selling.

Joe

[Zeev Hed]

You are predicting a depression (25% unemployment) and in this respect, I would say you are quite wrong. If the Feds did not try and smooth the market fluctuations by their intervention, yes, then we could have had a 1929 like calamity with 25% unemployment, and it would take 10 years or so to recover from such a calamity. But the feds is trying to engineer a series of soft landings bringing back, gradually, various elements of the economy to new equilibrium, thus I agree with the scenario of a lengthy secular bear (see my April 2000 post #reply-13483082) interrupted by few cyclical bull moves.

Last, if the Euro goes to $1.50, I don't see gold going much more than $500/ounce (I don't think the Euro is going to go that far, right now, I think we are within $.10 to $.20 from the Euro peak, thus my target fo about $400 or so on gold). Actually, longer term, I see the Euro once more weakening against the dollar (after a peak in the near future) because their central banks are too "Austrian" and their economic growth might, as a result be stunted.

Zeev

[jandch]

>>>Euro target 1.50
Gold - 2005 to 2007 $3K an ounce
Unemployment in US 25%<<<<

<<,Way too optimistic, the bear will last until 2020<<<

You guys really believe this? wow. YOu must have gone to the David Tice school for investing.

I better get my shovel and start digging the bunker and stocking it with food and supplies.

My opinion. No way any of the first three come true. I think Gold will have a hard time ever getting to $400. I think it probably has seen its high already.
Unemployment at 25%. Not unless a rogue nation decides to launch a major nuclear attack. Otherwise it will never even get close to 10%.

Unless of course a democrat (like Daschle) controls the whitehouse and they also control Congress. Then anything is possible. They would have everyone living in squalor. We would all be equal then and they would have accomplished their goal.