Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

You are predicting a depression (25% unemployment) and in this respect, I would say you are quite wrong. If the Feds did not try and smooth the market fluctuations by their intervention, yes, then we could have had a 1929 like calamity with 25% unemployment, and it would take 10 years or so to recover from such a calamity. But the feds is trying to engineer a series of soft landings bringing back, gradually, various elements of the economy to new equilibrium, thus I agree with the scenario of a lengthy secular bear (see my April 2000 post #reply-13483082) interrupted by few cyclical bull moves.

Last, if the Euro goes to $1.50, I don't see gold going much more than $500/ounce (I don't think the Euro is going to go that far, right now, I think we are within $.10 to $.20 from the Euro peak, thus my target fo about $400 or so on gold). Actually, longer term, I see the Euro once more weakening against the dollar (after a peak in the near future) because their central banks are too "Austrian" and their economic growth might, as a result be stunted.

Zeev