Replies to post #175762 on Biotech Values

[jq1234]

Health Care Reform and Hepatitis C:
A Convergence of Risk and Opportunity

Commissioned by Janssen Therapeutics

http://us.milliman.com/uploadedFiles/insight/2013/convergence-of-risk-and-opportunity.pdf

[DewDiligence]

Re: Constraints on HCV market

I am somewhere in between the two arguments.

That’s sort of a cop-out. The two premises vying for support are that: a) the HCV market will be demand constrained (what ‘ciotera’, ‘zipjet’, and a few other posters on this board think); or b) the HCV market will be supply—i.e. throughput—constrained (what GILD, ABBV, ENTA, Deutsche Bank [#msg-99031302], and I think).

To know which premise you support, you have to make some assumptions about the price of all-oral regimens for various treatment durations and geographies; however, you can’t simultaneously support both premises.