Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

[Deutsche Bank]: “GILD, similar to many of our checks, do not believe that [HCV sales] will be a big bolus, but rather play out over a longer period of time. Docs can treat only so many patients at a time.”

I’m pleased to see GILD and Deutsche Bank acknowledge that all-oral HCV sales will be supply (i.e. throughput) constrained rather than demand constrained. This is a fundamental premise of the ENTA valuation model in #msg-94993406:

During the next several years, the market for HCV drugs in the US and EU will be limited not so much by the number of patients with chronic HCV infection, but rather by the number of treating physicians and how many prescriptions they can write per year—i.e. the maximum throughput of the HCV medical establishment…