Replies to post #8238 on The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[DewDiligence]

Addendum:

The plan’s main goal is to have 60% of China’s population living in cities by 2020.

Currently, the proportion of China's population that is classified as urban is about 54%.

[DewDiligence]

CLF (+3%) may have gotten a modest boost from the news on China’s urbanization plan (#msg-99004088).

[RHinCT]

Another angle: China's Empty Cities

[DewDiligence]

Forget about Collapse of China

[This Barron’s piece is a good companion read to the NYT write-up in #msg-99004088 and the related articles referenced in that post.]

http://online.barrons.com/news/articles/SB50001424053111904732704579551711288306436

The umpteen-billionth book predicting the inevitable demise of China's economy just crossed our desk. Nay-saying China's economy has been a popular sport for years, but it has persistently been wrong. When does blood sport that draws no blood become boring?

Sure, China's economy has slowed three times in the 33 years for which quasi-reliable data are available. However, it has not contracted since it "took-off" on a path of modernization in 1979.

…If you believe the World Bank's International Comparison Project results, just updated to a 2011 benchmark, China's real GDP was already equal to 87% of the U.S. economy in 2011. Based on national estimates of growth since then, and taking a view on how this year will turnout, China could overtake the United States in real economic size this year [if GDP is adjusted on a purchasing-power-parity (PPP) basis].

Rather than accept this inevitability, analysts find a better "sell" for stories that foretell China's economic collapse. These are all big headline eye catchers: Growth is unbalanced. Banks are unstable. The currency is undervalued. The environment is too polluted. Demographics are unsupportive. Energy is not available. Commodity supplies cannot rise to support China's growth. Each of these theories leads to a bitter end to China's rush to modernization.

...Doomsday stories may sell books, but good stories are not necessarily good analysis. China's story is unlikely to have a crash-and-burn ending, so…prepare for a new world with China as its leader... Have your kids learn Mandarin, not French or Italian [LOL]… And do stop reading thrillers about China's economic demise. It is not coming.