"Low spikes seem to be a better timing indicator than high spikes."
The big ones sure do stand out pretty darn clearly, don't they? {NG} Note that I cut off a few of them in order to make the range go from +20% to -20%.
Wonder if an accumulation plot of your daily results would yield something? (Maybe a moving window accumualtion.)
Not sure what a moving window accumulation is, so I tried just a straight summation. I think there is too much natural upward bias for this one to be of much use.