Replies to post #55443 on Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[sox040713]

I agree that if CTIX makes a good deal after the 2b trial, the SP will undoubtedly be double digits. Investors like free cash flow. It eliminates the fear of dilution. Furthermore, a successful 2b will open the flood gate for other indications. If Leo can find a partner for oral mucositis, eye infections, ear infections, in addition to ABSSSI, what would the SP be then?

Notice that I haven't even factored in the elephant in the room K and its little brother P. If all three are successful, a SP in the triple digits is all but certain. A buyout? Try to multiple the SP by 2 or 3.

[noretreat]

I would much prefer 35 bucks myself. If I work really hard maybe I can convince myself. Cubist bought all of Trius for less than 800 million after phase 3, picking up Tedizolid, the "next" antibiotic when Daptomycin fails. I was in Trius heavily and came out great...but I also watched closely and there was much shareholder discontent with the deal. Everyone thought they could get more. There were even a bunch of ambulance chaser threats of class action suits. Nothing came of all the bluster, of course.

I disagree with your conclusion of $35-$50 after Phase 2, even with a deal. The nice thing is we don't have to argue about it, we can just wait and see. What would really be nice is if Kevetrin made this whole discussion moot.

"Reverse exceptionalism" is a great term by the way.