Innovation Pharmaceuticals Inc (IPIX)

[BonelessCat]

If B is worth $800 million or $5 a share fully diluted, then the share price should be a multiple of 5 or $25, not straight up $5 a share. Seems like calling for a $3.50 sp is reverse exceptionalism, as every other development stage pharma gets a multiple of 5 except CTIX.

The best license deals while minimizing the out of pocket costs to startups come after completion of Phase 2 and FDA approval for advancement to Phase 3. For B that after Phase 2b valuation, assuming the best dosing regimen of 1 day and noninferiority outcomes, that would mean a deal of between $500 million and $800 million with an upfront payment of between $50 million and $100 million along with double-digit royalties on the back end.

CTIX is then unburdened of any further costs for final development of B to market and would have enough money to complete Prurisol and first Kevetrin trials as well as develop B-OM. Except in a CTIX world of reverse exceptionalism, that should add to the $25 base SP not subtract. After striking a deal with a big pharma I would expect $35 to $50 a share.