Replies to post #457198 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Zeev Hed]

I am not sure about the remainder of the year, I think there is a potential debacle here till late March, a bounce, but no real bottom till late September early October. Right now I am quite careful, surely not seeing me posting "fully loaded".

[Bearmove]

From Barron' s 2/13/05
The American Association of Individual Investors
Bulls 40.2% Bears 34.6% Neutral 25.2%
40.2/(40.2+34.6) = 53.74%
Four Week Average = 56.59%

Historic dates for comparison:
7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75
10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39
4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97
1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28
4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25
9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78
9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77
9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80
7-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.75
7-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.70
10-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76


Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 59.8%
Four Week Average = 58.58%
For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com


As of February 10, 2006 close
The CBOE Put/Call ratio 10 day moving average is at .85. http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.we... The VIX Market Volatility Index closed Friday at 12.87. http://quote.yahoo.com/q?s=%5evix&d=t