From Barron' s 2/13/05 The American Association of Individual Investors Bulls 40.2% Bears 34.6% Neutral 25.2% 40.2/(40.2+34.6) = 53.74% Four Week Average = 56.59%
Historic dates for comparison: 7-16-98 44.3% S&P 500 Close 1186.75 10-12-98 36.76% S&P 500 Close 984.39 4-3-00 77.78% S&P 500 Close 1505.97 1-1-01 58.82% S&P 500 Close 1320.28 4-4-01 51.35% S&P 500 Close 1103.25 9-10-01 47.34% S&P 500 Close 1085.78 9-17-01 42.11% S&P 500 Close 1038.77 9-21-01 41.08% S&P 500 Close 965.80 7-19-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 847.75 7-23-02 32.88% S&P 500 Close 797.70 10-9-02 42.36% S&P 500 Close 776.76
Sideline Money Bears + Neutral = 59.8% Four Week Average = 58.58% For more info on AAII check out their web site. http://www.aaii.com