Replies to post #1585 on The Black Box

[wahz]

Hate to tell you, but as I check through my various calculations I find that there is absolutely no precedent for a greater than 7.5% drop in the dow on whatever turn we get, and more impressively, 7% is the highest pull back within 12 months of a reading like this, on my stuff. This is going back to the twenties.

3-5% drop on the inital turn is the norm

Sure glad I went short.......

I can't get stats on the nasdaq, but i would guess that 10% on the ndx 100 would be all that could happen, and that could be 12% on the q's. 7-10% on the q's is probably a reasonable guess. Bet we are lucky to get 7% on the q's. That might be from 28.80 to 26.80, which would be nice, before we plow to about 60 in 3 years.

The institutions will be full of bear's by then, wondering how its possible msft spiked to a new all time high at 60, when they were projected to earn only 1.80 in 2008

Remind me to just wait for the turn next time!

[Rick Storm]

Wahz, could you take a look at this and tell me what you think? thanks

"
Posted by: Rick Storm
In reply to: positiontrader who wrote msg# 1251 Date:5/3/2003 7:59:38 AM
Post #of 1253

Positiontrader, i looked back on stockcharts at 91 92 timeframe at nl and saw after massive runs and very few new lows, we were in a trading range for months after both these times. I hope someone else has the time to compare the Spx to NL over the years that are available. Do you have an Ndx retrenchment number?


Also, I have been wondering that after this move from 1253 on the Naz to 1521 plus ,A 21% move so far; I wonder that when when we top say at 25%, if we will not be in a trading range for a long period of time , say till next October and not the consensus of a cyclic bull? I wonder if the Vix is tipping us off to a prolonged trading range? I appreciate all your contributions and honesty!!"

[Rick Storm]

sorry duplicate--RS