The Black Box

[wahz]

Hate to tell you, but as I check through my various calculations I find that there is absolutely no precedent for a greater than 7.5% drop in the dow on whatever turn we get, and more impressively, 7% is the highest pull back within 12 months of a reading like this, on my stuff. This is going back to the twenties.

3-5% drop on the inital turn is the norm

Sure glad I went short.......

I can't get stats on the nasdaq, but i would guess that 10% on the ndx 100 would be all that could happen, and that could be 12% on the q's. 7-10% on the q's is probably a reasonable guess. Bet we are lucky to get 7% on the q's. That might be from 28.80 to 26.80, which would be nice, before we plow to about 60 in 3 years.

The institutions will be full of bear's by then, wondering how its possible msft spiked to a new all time high at 60, when they were projected to earn only 1.80 in 2008

Remind me to just wait for the turn next time!