Replies to post #174220 on Biotech Values

[biomaven0]

>GILD

This is a complex situation. I think it is useful to divide the world here into the super-informed, the well-informed and the uninformed.

The super-informed might be looking at the whole HCV market and wondering how many years this will run, and whether GILD is just stealing from its future growth.

The well-informed look at these numbers and say "Wow!"

The ill-informed know nothing until earning come out and GILD beats by a mile, or for the slightly less ill-informed, when the brokers keep raising their estimates.

My own take is that the super-informed are being too clever by half. I have to believe this stock will go up relative to the market in the short/medium term as the broader market absorbs these script numbers and the ill-informed finally catch on.

Peter

[jbog]

Rocky,

I'm with you. The investment was the HCV market, not the comppany per se.

Right now I'm leaning to sell some Gild and enter Enta but haven't pulled the trigger yet.

[DewDiligence]

It’s difficult to believe that GILD’s prospects are under-appreciated by any sell-side analysts.

[Rocky3]

GILD -again.

The script numbers continue to be huge.

**The week's total prescriptions for Sovaldi were 4,714, up 14.1% vs. last week's 4,051.
**The week's new prescriptions for Sovaldi were 3,128, up 9.0% vs. last week's 2,848.

From Wells Fargo today as to '14 sales:

(1) Base case - secondary warehousing - growth in new patient starts slows Q2-Q3 then picks up again Q4 - $6.82B
(2) Rapidly decaying Sovaldi new patient starts throughout remainder of year (bear case) - $4.97B
(3) Sovaldi new patient starts level off for rest of year - $9.44B
(4) Week over week NRx changes match those seen with Incivek+Victrelis at same point in launch - $9.21B

Also, it said:

**Separately, we note today that CHMP provided an opinion on the use of the fixed-dose combination of
ledipasvir/sofosbuvir, in response to a request from Sweden. The combination of ledipasvir and sofosbuvir may be used
in compassionate-use programs, at the level of individual EU countries, for patients who are at a high risk of liver
decompensation or death (less than 12 months if untreated). We read this as an incremental positive for GILD-- as fixed
dose combination can now be used in a subgroup of European GT-1 patients without a prior marketing authorization -
helping clinicians gain experience with the combo before full approval.

So, again I am surprised there has been so little market reaction. Possibilities: (1) A huge merket opportunity was already priced in and the fact that it is coming sooner than expected is no big deal; (2) The market still thinks that there is be a leveling off and then decline after the "warehoused" patients are treated: (3) The market is wrong and when sales and earnings are known, it will recognize that we are talking about 100% growth in earnings this year and more next year; and (4) Other. I continue to take a larger position. Bought some 60 Leaps today - both '15 and '16.

Again, would love to hear others' thought and how this will affect ABBV/ENTA.