I like your segmentation. The problem is that the influence/knowledge/information flows top-down, from the super-informed (GILD's CEO who does not commit to a number) to the well-informed (sell-side analysts who see script numbers and run with them) to uninformed (general investing public following analyst reports and news).
I don't think the super-informed are being "too clever". They are being just clever enough and their opinion will ultimately prevail. The only question is can the sell-side analysts in the meantime create short-lived hysteria to drive stocks up and down? Sure they can.. but that's a bad premise for investing.
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