Replies to post #104046 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Chris McConnel]

So your bear suit really means "the market is dangerous here" more than anything else.

[jdaasoc]

McClellen Summation going to ring the bell at +1000 sometime soon. I hope later then sooner because this rally is a whole lot of fun and I want to savor it as long as possible.

http://stockcharts.com/charts/indices/McSumNASD.html

A lot of stocks like GE MSFT WMT FDC going to hit 52 W highs in next 30 days before this party is over.

[ajtj99]

Zeev, we had numbers like this last March, and they were also impressive at that time. We got the real deal a few months later.

Somehow, this feels a lot more like summer 2000. We dropped from 5200 to 3000 (43%), ramped to 4200 (40%), dropped to 3600 (15%), ramped to 4200 (19%), then dropped to 2200 (49%).

Let's see, 2098 to 1108 (47%), 1108 to 1521 (37%), 1521 to 1253 (18%), 1253 to 1521 (est) (21%), then maybe drop to 800 (47%).

Of course it is different, but the similarities are significant enough that I thought it important to note.

[Paul Shread]

Zeev,

Tom Pulley has an interesting intermediate trading system that seems somewhat similar to yours. One of his data points is that a very low number of new lows (say 15-20 on the Nasdaq) can mark a top. He's going 75% short on Monday (as short as he gets).

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18908998

Paul

[Koikaze]

I think it is worth calling attention to the fact that the current market run provides a vivid example of the logic of Zeev's stated reason for not shorting ... that when he's wrong, he's not doubly wrong. He has been bearish for quite some time, but, instead of shorting, he simply withdrew the bulk of his capital from the market. It turned out that the market did not go down (yet), but that fact did not injure Zeev. He's simply sitting on more cash.

If I've learned anything from maintaining the Zeev's Ideas Board (#board-1351), this simple concept is the most important. I'm not suggesting I don't short because I do. What I've learned is ... market fluctuations do not hurt your cash. It's an important lesson, and will be until we get back to the "Cash is Trash" days of old.

Fred