Replies to post #173776 on Biotech Values

[oc631]

What GILD numbers are telling me is that the GT2 warehouse isn't very large, otherwise we would see a more profound skew toward GT2s initially.

I agree the GT2 numbers are disappointing and it does skew the GT1 numbers to the high side this quarter.

I think you are underestimating the propensity of prescribers to stay within the approved label (and payers to enforce this), esp. community gastros are unlikely to experiment.

Starting a patient without interferon is a dangerous game from a regulatory standpoint. If however there is a trend of patients not following through with 12-weeks of interferon payers could make a case not to support the interferon-based option. The label allowing 24-weeks of Sovaldi/Riba in GT1 patients that are interferon ineligible was probably a mistake on the part of the FDA suggesting wider utility. The willpower of patients to continue interferon (even for 12-weeks) has been reduced by the promise of an oral option later this year. Excuses concerning interferon drops will be counted as statistics.