Biotech Values

[ciotera]

70% is only an anomaly

I think you are underestimating the propensity of prescribers to stay within the approved label (and payers to enforce this), esp. community gastros are unlikely to experiment.

What GILD numbers are telling me is that the GT2 warehouse isn't very large, otherwise we would see a more profound skew toward GT2s initially. Short term this is bearish for GILD - if most of the business is coming from GT1s, then because of the logical warehousing dynamics that you are referring to (officially approved IFN-free options for GT1s by end of year), we can expect the Sovaldi growth trajectory to reverse itself very soon (even sooner than what happened to Incivek). It is likely that the analyst community will overreact at that trend change and give an undeserved valuation boost to ENTA, at which time I will most likely close at least half of my position.