Prior to August last year there does appear to have been a very strong correlation in DRYS and ORIG pps. That doesn't seem to have been the case since though.
I believe there are 2 specific factors that are driving DRYS pps at the moment:
1) Commodities producers are reporting their biggest quarter in a while. This would seem to indicate shippers are about to get busy.
2) World economies are expected to grow at a modest pace this year. Emphasis should be placed on growth, which also means higher demand for shipping.
My thesis, however, is that DRYS ownership value in ORIG has not been fully valued as yet. The combined value of DRYS and ORIG is quite a bit higher than the pps is currently. That value is somewhere in the $6.25 area for book only. What multiple should be applied to DRYS to determine a fair value for the pps? That could produce some interesting numbers.
This is without doubt a rebuilding year for the shipping industry and DRYS specifically. The ATM would seem to have been needed in order to, in part at least, pay for the ships that are about to be delivered. ORIG will likely pay a dividend this quarter, which will also help DRYS revenues. Unless GE springs another surprise on shareholders, the March reports should reflect break even to slightly up revenues and the next quarter solidly positive revenues.
Short-term I believe the price is headed up. Long-term it should be headed up a lot!
fwiw,
Net-Man
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