michael, re gold ...
I never suggested that banks would sell gold.
What I will suggest is that they will significantly decrease purchases of gold; or in many cases, completely cease buying gold.
At this point in time, all major banks around the world have sufficient gold to defend their particular currency and hedge against the dollar (which is the de facto standard of all other currencies at this time).
That shrinking of active gold trade is in itself sufficient to cause gold prices to go down. That is true for any fixed asset in any shrinking market.
Another point that I think is important regarding hedging is that hedges are like insurance. Hedges are always considered an expense, not a profit center. Banks took on gold as insurance, as an expense, and are therefore prepared to take losses on it.
As of this year, 2013, there are no countries in the world that are on a gold standard. When countries were an a gold standard, they never hesitated to go off the standard when they needed to increase total currency (to build ships or fight wars, etc.). So, in reality, a gold standard is worth nothing if countries keep turning it on and off or allowing its exchange rate to float.
Also in reality, a gold standard cannot ever work. The supply of newly discovered gold is not sufficient to account for either population growth or growth in wealth among all nations. So the world must be off a gold standard and allow its value, and the value of their currencies, to float just as with any other material. This always means that when the demand for gold goes down, its price will also go down. Until the next banking crisis, the demand for gold by banks will continue to go down. Expect the price of gold to follow.
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