Gben
I doubt any of the companies you mentioned would take a stake in IDCC until the 3g issue becomes a little clearer. Until this piece of the puzzle is put to bed, IDCC is running on a 2g plan that is limited to 3.6 years with these companies. Further, any dual mode phones are not covered under the existing licenses. If, as, and when IDCC begins licensing 3g with no strings attached ie rates, territories, convenience versus no infringement and uniform periods of time, then these companies may desire to take a stake in the company.
Key items in the 1stQ presentation are as follows:
1. 35.5 mil in revenue from Ericy of which 1.5 mil is recurring revenue and 34 mil is a one time "other" entry.
2. Sharp revenue is very important. All reports indicate that they are doing very well across the board in their handset productions. We will get a partial quarter of the expired 1997 licensed technology and perhaps a lump through 2006 which may be applied straight line on a quarterly basis. Of course, the possibility exists that Sharp will be firm in its failure to renew citing NEC as its basis. They also have a prepaid balance of nearly 9 mil for 2.5/3g which was the result of the updated license covering most technology except the technology under the recently expired license.
3. NEC revenue is very important because they only have 1.2 Mil remaining in the deferred revenue 3g box. IDCC will show the 3.3125 mil recurring revenue for the 2g settlement under the 1995 license. Thus, the figure for NEC will be very important in determining the 3g forward looking 3g revenue stream under the updated license in 2002. NEC also had another payment due April 1, 2003 for the 2002 settlement.
4. Guidance will be very important in relation to a blockbuster 1stQ. It is obvious that, without Nok/Samsung on board via their agreement with Ericy, the second Q will fall far short of the 1stQ. IDCC will need to give WS some sort of information going forward unless they state that nothing can be discussed because of the potential of arbitration (Gosh, I hope not).
5. The proxies should be filed by the earnings conference call. If we do not see a proposal for increasing the authorized shares to more than 100 mil, then this may be a tea leave item with respect to belief of management as to the timing of Nok/Samsung.
6. This recent short increase report is the second most puzzling event of 2003. The first of course is the size of the unscheduled blocks sold by our COB, COO and other officers when the company was stating "days" for the Nok/Samsung ratification process of the Ericy rate. I am still shocked over these sales with the information being provided to the street and the shareholders at that time. The sales fall short of the reasonable man theory regardless of the spin one wishes to place upon them. If you throw all matters aside, "why" is still present regarding the sales. Now equally as puzzling is the increased short position into to the teeth of the news and the word "days" at the CC. These increased short positions also do not pass the reasonable man theory and after throwing all matters aside, "why" certainly still stands regarding same. I suppose that some could have bailed out by now, but the rationale for the actions of management and the shorts remains a puzzle.
We have interesting times ahead of us. I am rooting on us old dumb longs and that is one thought that after throwing all the matters aside, the word "why" is not present.
MO
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