Replies to post #171369 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Given that two competing drugs-ABBV/ENTA and GILD's-are hitting the HCV treatment market at the same time, there must be a finite chance that a third one could also arise, and severely reduce both pricing and sales. Have you given any thought to this in your model?

There's no finite chance; it's pretty much a certainty that several additional competing all-oral combos will come to market in the years following the GILD and ABBV/ENTA all-oral entries (MRK, BMY, JNJ to name a few).

[DewDiligence]

Re: ENTA valuation

Given that two competing drugs-ABBV/ENTA and GILD's-are hitting the HCV treatment market at the same time, there must be a…chance that a third one could also arise, and severely reduce both pricing and sales. Have you given any thought to this in your model?

No all-oral regimen from another company has competitive data yet from a large phase-2b or phase-3 trial in genotype-1 patients. When such data become available, I’ll adjust the model accordingly.

p.s. Considerations such as the above are part of the reason I aimed to make the ENTA valuation model conservative, particularly with respect to pricing.