Replies to post #171178 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

ENTA
I do agree that GILD can at best hope to match ABBv/ENTA's efficacy, but i think it is a very high likelihood they will based on phase 2. In this scenario I do think ABBV can still compete and be the preferred regimen under some plans based on price as long as all other factors are more or less equal*. However sofosbuvir will always have to be available IMO to PI failures and this market - while modest - will almost completely go to GILD

The best case scenario for ENTA is that GILD's regimen doesn't measure up in terms of efficacy. However unlikely, it is a possibility, and then crazy things could happen to the stock prices of the respective companies

*There is a chance GILD could have comparable efficacy without ribavirin or with 8 weeks duration and ENTA's regimen requires ribavirin. If GILD can drop ribavirin and ENTA cannot this would present a worst case scenario for ENTA obviously, and then i think GILD has far more leverage with insurance plans. I don't think going from 12 to 8 weeks with ribavirin will have as large an impact on the commercial prospects as being able to drop ribavirin