I think for a change you are expecting a fast move here, while I see a minimum 2 week drop, which takes it till latter part of the month. if 1750's are hit sooner than I anticipate I will also assume a large rebound.
The 10 year note is putting pressure on the market. It continues to inch up. If it does break out above 3 percent, watch out for a nasty drop. The last time it came close it failed to move higher and retraced back down.
if the economic reports continue to surprise on the upside the market will need time to digest this change and will fall. this assumes rates rise with the news.
My long standing theory on how the market tops out is due to internal pressure from much improved economic data. we are seeing a long string of good news consistent with the notion that we are gearing up for a new phase in this bull run. I haven't received one endorsement for this theory since everyone assumed the Fed would never be able to push growth high enough to offset the debt. Looks like today it just might happen. if this is the case we should see a deeper correction than people assumed but also a continued rise in the market after that due exclusively on sales growth. This coincides nicely with an assumption that we end this bull run in a few months time.
Imagine a drop in the market due to high GDP numbers and tapering. Is this possible? I have always questioned my own theory and for years have wavered. Today it looks like it has a good shot of becoming reality.
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