Before the last run sp dropped from 0.02 --> 0.0065 in about 2 weeks before the run. The selling stopped about 2-3days before news with a slight climb from .0065 up to .10. Also, the two days prior to the NEWS this summer there were start of day runups to .02 (which I assumed to clean out some weak hands or those with set trades already in).
The MM's were MASTERFUL in the run-up...steady climb. Lot's of fippers head faked and chasing. Many were lucky enough to get back in and still make huge gains as it went from .0065 --> 0.12. Petron diluted primarily on the way down over the next two months....but they were FORCED to let it run as the float was locked two consecutive days. This is a big reason it reached 0.12 and will be difficult to duplicate without MASSIVE volume and MASSIVE news.
Since the run convertibles (i.e. Asher) have crucified this stock.
HOWEVER, as noted...lots more shares out there and the "news" at that time was substantial (potentially) with assumptions that LaNina and Covenant COULD product 30-50bpd. That isn't going to happen...but the Bakken play is just as significant if not moreso.
Don't give yourself a headache. Until news there will be a steady decline as convertibles race to push down the price to keep converting at 50% of the 3 day close. Keep a watchful eye before you load the boat...but it is low enough sp that you will make money on news. I just have NO CLUE how low they "could" push it...it depends on how long we wait IMO. I suspect if we wait 2-3 weeks for Bakken news we will probably see mid .002's. Again...just my opinion. I am holding until there before I add more to a rather large position here.
I am more nervous now...not that I don't like the company. I think as was stated you shouldn't be "trading" this stock unless you can read tea leaves better than I. It is a med-long hold again IMO.