What am I missing? For starters your missing two bear markets. Jun to Aug 2010, 17.12% drop, then Aug to Dec 2011, 21.58% drop
This Bull market has gained 733.65 pts in just 23 months, this is the 3rd largest Bull market in history.
The Bull market of 1995 gained 747.7 pts, in 43 months
The Bull market of 2003 gained 807.46 pts, in 53 months
I'm not saying we are headed for a Bear market at this point. I believe this Bull market may last another 12 to 24 months, and the SPX may go as high as 2100 to 2200.
What I am saying is the current indicators are getting pretty extended and have to slow down for them to catch up, so getting to 1900 by the end of the year I would say is near impossible.
You have indicated that between now and the end of the year, you are expecting minor corrections. Are you talking about 60 min or Daily level corrections. A 60 min correction averages 20 pts, and a Daily correction averages 60 pts.
A 60 min complete cycle up/down averages 15.6 trading hours and a complete Daily cycle averages 14.89 trading days
You have a 60 min P1 averaging 20.7 pts and a P2 averaging 21.1 that's a gain of .40 per two trading days.
A Daily P1 average is 60.28 and a P2 average is 64.03, that is a gain of 3.75 per 15 trading days or maybe 7 pts per month.
To get to 1900 you need the market to gain 91.58 pts in 22 trading days, that's an average of a gain of 4.16 pts per trading day, above 1808.42, if we drop below 1808.42 then it has to make it up.
Just don't see it happening.
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