"mlsoft, you underestimate the power of the government to stimulate the economy and borrow from future years, if we enter a recession here, Bush is going to be a one term president, he might still be, but you can bet your last short dollar that they are going to pull all stops so that the Dems will not be able to come in with the old motto "It is the economy stupid", so no recession right here yet, just muddling, not fast enough (though we may have a surprise on the next GDP preliminary showing a 2.5 to 3% growth) to create new jobs, but fast enough to claim that we are not in a recession."
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Zeev...
I believe the surprise here is going to be the inability of the Government to prevent the recession. Neither monetary policy nor fiscal policy address the problems in the economy and I do not think jawboning, relatively modest tax relief and/or spending programs, or increasing the money supply are likely to prove effective. In fact, I believe that the Greenspan Gambit to reflate the consumer's pocket by driving the markets higher is the only idea that has a realistic chance of success, although I continue to believe he will ultimately fail at the attempt.
As for a second term, if it depends solely on the economy as you suggest, Bush will be a one term president, but I do not accept that as a given. So far, the Dems have shown utter stupidity in their handling of the war and terrorism, and more folks are terrified by the thought of a Daschle type liberal democrat in charge of national security and the international situation than they are afraid of the economy. If the Republicans can successfully get across the truth that the bubble came and burst under the previous administration, the market collapse began under the previous administration, and the economy which turned down as a result of the bursting economic and market bubble started its downward slide under the previous administration, then Bush may get reelected despite a very poor economy. Things have changed in the world since 09/11 and the American people as a whole trust Bush and think he is doing a good job. The world will not be all that much safer a year from now, and I would not bet my life that Bush will not pull off a victory regardless of the economy.
The Dems so far are showing themselves very capable of political suicide by ignoring the opinions and values of the average American and I see no signs that will change. As long as they look at Bush as a dummy and illegitimate president, they will lose by underestimating both him and the American public yet again.
mlsoft
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