I'll probably will have to readjust these, but right now, I don't have a basis for that. Mind you, lats year we dropped from 1759 to 1229 in a shorter span (May 14 to July 23 or so...). That was a Nassacre, and I expect another Nassacre here as well. It is actually eerie how this year repeats last year with just about a 250 Naz differential...
Catalyst may be realization that there is no significant or any for that matter pick up in economic activity, inspite of big hopes related to the end of war.
Look at today's beige book for example. It includes data for the first 2 weeks of April. The war has already ended and economy didn't show any significant signs of growth.
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