There is one difference. Last year we never rallied this much this far into the year with so many new highs. We were already in a downtrend.
This earnings season has been "suspicious" in my mind. I have a feeling companies like IBM and MMM would have misses were it not for the dollar drop. And guidance hasn't been that great either. I see that ny stock exhange short interest was up in April........ probably a bet that companies would miss and maybe most of this rally has been not much more than shorts unwinding their positions.
Especially nagging to me is the guidance of Merq. It was an uncharacteristically weak guidance, making me think....... ah ha! The dollar was the saving grace this year.