Replies to post #170132 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

I don’t fully understand why you think the non-ribavirin arms of PEARL-2/3/4 are so easy to handicap. For the record, what are your expectations for each of these trial arms?

Between AVIATOR and PEARL-1 interim there's data to draw upon - especially knowing the good tolerability of the regimen (even with rib but certainly without) given results from the ph 3 that reported today. So my guess:

1b naives 95+% SVR12 (some 1bs carry a baseline resistance variant to abt-333 but we know from PEARL 1 that you probably don't even need abt-333). If anything the Japanese 1bs are harder to treat..

1b experienced my guess (although with somewhat less confidence) is 90% or so, again from PEARL 1

1a naives may be hardest to predict, but using AVIATOR data I think I can take a reasonable stab. 2/3 of the 79 pts or 53 pts in the naïve arm were 1a. If you assume the 27 or so 1bs did about 98% (fair assumption based on the 42 pts in PEARL 1) then the 1a pts had SVR 12s of 85% ballpark to get to a blended SVR12 of 90% in that AVIATOR cohort

I don't think we're going to see results deviate more than 5% or so from these numbers - especially again now that we know tolerability is excellent so on treatment SVR shouldn't deviate much from ITT