Replies to post #170111 on Biotech Values

[dewophile]

ENTA’s stock will react more positively to strong data in the PEARL-2/3/4 studies if the arms without ribavirin perform as well as—or nearly as well as—the arms with ribavirin

Now that we know tolerability of the regimen in a large cohort (sapphire 1), I think it's fairly predictable what the PEARL 2/3/4 data will show (again bc of the large ph 2). More significant commercially is going to be how ENTA regimens compare to GILD so if anything the GILD data will have greater impact on ENTA's share price than anything else IMO

In light of the fact GILD is investigating 3DAAs now for cirrhotics I also think ENTA's data in pts with cirrhosis now may be the swing study in guiding clinicians. IF ENTA has greater efficacy in this cohort - and it may just be wishful thinking on my part but I have to think GILD saw something in their data that was less than optimal to start looking at a 3DAA combo so it is plausible - then ENTA could in fact get a larger share of the market than even you think. In the real world I'm not so sure all cirrhotics are captured and if clinicians and patients want to play it safe assume there may be some fibrosis and give the regimen that works best in this scenario. I think this would trump an 8 week course, once a day and possibly even ribavirin use