Replies to post #99168 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[integrivest]

Ze'ev:

How high would the comp have to go in order for you to rethink the GN03?

Thanks

Steve

[ajtj99]

Well, I've been tracking the BPCOMPQ, and look how a trendline I expected to hold got obliterated yesterday.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$bpcompq,uu[h,a]daclyyay[d19960101,20030429][pc20][vc60]...

It's now headed for a double top at the January high. Here's a close-up, with some lines on the ADX showing how extreme the BPCOMP is currently with historic extremes going back to 1996.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPCOMPQ,uu[h,a]daclyyay[d20020101,20030429][pc20][vc60]...

As you can see by the BPCOMP chart, the low in March was pretty extreme on the BPCOMP ADX, just like the BPSPX and BPINDU were really extreme in February. I believe what we're witnessing is the coming end of the bear market, and lots of things that have worked well and in a timely manner the last 3-years are going to get whipsawed while we get closer to the bottom.

Oh, one more point. The BP charts show only closing prices, hence my preference for a 1-2 day wonder rally that dumps into the end of the day on the last day.

[brightness]

As I said many times before, cyclical indicators do not work in a trending market. We have two months in a row closing out on the plus side relative to max pain, and it's been six months since the last low.

[TREND1]

DID I JUST SEE ZEEV POST A CHART ???????(GGGGGG)

[Jerry Olson]

Zeev

as the resident P&F guru<VBG>...i cannot agree with that assessment...the BPSPX and almost all other BP's are just now rising up on all charts..the SPX usually tops out at 64-74% we are only at 48.8% and have a long way to go...and the bigger biys are all under 50% thats bullish for me...

so while we are at nominal short term highs here..and really not really<G>...the index BP's have a much larger move ahead...

if the short term BP's reverse down it may not even affect the main coaches and probably will not...the short termers will only reset themselves to move much higher later...

if you use oscilators then RSI's and MACD's etc only signal short term tops to me...when they correct and bottom then we'll turn back up at a much faster rate...as long as there is no technical damage done to the big boy BP's...

i doubt very much if that will happen on the coming retrace back down...

the key number to me is 845 SPX we'll watch that in the coming weeks to see if it has any strength...that was the 50% retrace from the Mar lows to the Mar highs...the 1st retrace down...

but all in all..i see no major selloff here..yes a correction or pullback to say mid May..but thats it...

of course it all speculation<G>

[wahz]

"Yes, but the RSI on the BPCOPMQ (at 90.1%!!!!)"

Zeev, wonder what it was in February 91, before the nasdaq went up 900% with only one pull back of 20%, over 9 years?

Your scaring me. Those exclamation points are something else