Replies to post #99216 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[WinLoseOrDraw]

can only go back to '95, but even that is enough to get your point across.

http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$BPCOMPQ,uu[w,a]declynay[d19950418,20030418][pb4!b8!d8,1...

[a/operator]

wahz - Naz up 900% etc.

But your holdings are only up 500% in the past few months, what's wrong with you!? -g-

Your sentinment is characteristic of why the thing is at 90.1 %?

[Zeev Hed]

The difference, of course that in 1991, we were in a secular bull market (indices rarely stayed under the 200 DMA and most of the retrenchment were stopped there or just above). During secular bull markets, one should expect longer periods of "overbought" than in bear markets just as in secular bear markets we get longer periods of oversold. Unless you are taking the position that the secular bear is over, or that we have an interim cyclical bull starting here, more recent experience (the last three years) should weigh in more heavily in this series of indicators.

Zeev