It is a matter if the science is as good as we hope. If it is real good science then there is precedent for eventually getting to $10B or more. If the science is not real then $5 could be difficult. If it is $5 then it is likely more than $50 eventually. Maybe sooner than we think
Paul it is my opinion that there is likely more than one BP interested in partnering or buying out PPHM. It is also my opinion that it is more likely that there will be a partnership leading to a buyout(as was the case with Genentech) than an immediate buyout.
If there are 2 or 3 BP's interested in partnering with PPHM then PPHM is in the very nice situation of having a bidding war(some of us have had more than one buyer interested in buying our house!) which can only sweeten the terms of partnering. When you add in the value to PPHM of having a co-commercialization right in the US, the value of a partnership could get into the billions!
It is just such a situation which could result in an immediate buyout offer. One BP may decide that simply cannot afford to pass up the opportunity to corner the PS franchise. I think that Roche may look back on their Genentech deal and wish that they had just done the initial buyout. Delaying the buyout cost them many tens of Billions of dollars!
If the science behind PS targeting is as important as many of us think...then forget about comparison with other biotech deals. You would find it difficult to find one whose technology can be reasonably compared to the PS targeting technology.
I do expect a good partnership...however I would not be surprised by a buyout! WE shall soon see IMO!
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