Replies to post #1020 on The Black Box

[Dick Weigel]

Interesting times. Potentially we may break a Lindahl sell wiggle in the indexes with a buy wiggle if we can continue up here
http://www.siliconinvestor.com/stocktalk/msg.gsp?msgid=18840853
This was also backed by a Friday/Monday break pattern, i.e. yesterday should have continued the sell off but didn't so we are set up for a turn.
The other side of the coin is that we are coming off seasonal strength which ends this month and the up volume yesterday was hardly convincing.
When you put this in the back drop of a thirties type of market rerun scenario with its volatility, well, hold on. Which ever way it goes, I don't think it will be boring.

[wahz]

technically speaking, it would have been better to have a bad finish. Still a buy, but a little overbought on the daily.

In any case, for the sake of the indicators and the time I put in on them the last 20+ years, I am still hoping the reason I didn't generate a sell shortly after 1425 is because we were going higher after all, but it remains to be seen. For me to get a sell a week late, well it has just never happened before

[wahz]

"Posted by: wahz
In reply to: gottfried who wrote msg# 1017 Date:4/14/2003 11:53:23 AM
Post #of 8960

I agree that the vix spike will not occur

Looking back, it took a good 7 months spent under the 200 day before the back of the bulls was broken, and even then, there were a few spectacular rallies that gave them hope. I think we may see some of that..this will require LOTS of patience. Most of the folks left, are either good at shorting or have a sell the rally attitude. They have to be retrained through pain. It has to get to the point where it is too painful to continue to do what has worked for so long.

I think bears have suffered almost nothing yet, so this will take a long time to unwind"
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As another refresher, we have spent around 7 months under the 200 day. We have now entered the period when we are suppossed to have strong enough setbacks to give the bears brief periods of joy, before hard rallies to crush them again. This should happen on approximately seven occassions in the next 27 months.

In 2006 the vix should have a sustained period over its 200 day sma. when that happens, we need to start using it again as an important indicator