The Black Box

[wahz]

"Posted by: wahz
In reply to: gottfried who wrote msg# 1017 Date:4/14/2003 11:53:23 AM
Post #of 8960

I agree that the vix spike will not occur

Looking back, it took a good 7 months spent under the 200 day before the back of the bulls was broken, and even then, there were a few spectacular rallies that gave them hope. I think we may see some of that..this will require LOTS of patience. Most of the folks left, are either good at shorting or have a sell the rally attitude. They have to be retrained through pain. It has to get to the point where it is too painful to continue to do what has worked for so long.

I think bears have suffered almost nothing yet, so this will take a long time to unwind"
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As another refresher, we have spent around 7 months under the 200 day. We have now entered the period when we are suppossed to have strong enough setbacks to give the bears brief periods of joy, before hard rallies to crush them again. This should happen on approximately seven occassions in the next 27 months.

In 2006 the vix should have a sustained period over its 200 day sma. when that happens, we need to start using it again as an important indicator