gdl - The Daily is due a Phase 1 this week July 18th), the average Daily Phase 1 decline is 60 points. However, since the SPX is still in a Bull market and the Weekly Phase 2 is only in it's 3rd week, I doubt we will see a 60 point drop, plus the 60 min Phase 1 closed yesterday in it's 5th trading hour, so the 60 min is due for a Phase 2 this morning with a projected high of 1693.72.
For the Daily to get a Phase 1 tomorrow the SPX will have to currently drop below 1659 (Daily UTL) by the close today and open tomorrow below that level and remain below 1659 the entire trading day. I don't see that happening, unless some unexpected event occurs.
As for a 100 point surge in the next three weeks, it's possible if the SPX Daily gets in a Phase 1 (correction), the current Daily Phase 2 has exceeded it's high projection by 16.24 points, in May the Daily Phase 2 exceeded it's projected high by 86.98 points, during that 22 trading day period, the 60 min Phase 2 had four extended Phase 2's lasting 33,36,27 & 26 trading hours, the last four 60 min Phase 2 cycles have been extended lasting 21,23,16 & 53 trading hours, so the likely hood that continues is slim.
The Monthly Phase 2 is now extended by 4 months so that adds a little bit to downside pressure, which means the upside will be harder and the lower cycles will have to continue to make coordinated Phase 2's for the upside momentum to continue.
In the last two weeks +, the SPX Weekly confirmed a new Phase 2, the 60 min confirmed a Phase 2 that lasted 53 trading hours (new record), and the Daily confirmed two Phase 2's the current one is now in it's 9th trading day (Average), so all that created the 125 point surge from 1560 to 1685. So a short Daily correction in the near future will be needed to keep this upside momentum going.
Warning of major downside, will be indicated first by shorter Phase 2's and longer Phase 1's (Unless unexpected tragedy/crisis occurs), coordinated Phase 1's will accelerate the downside.
Bottom line: With the Weekly now in it's 3rd week and it has gained 125 points of it's 150 point average, I believe the lower cycles will now slow down and get back into their normal cycle mode until the SPX Monthly decides to make a cycle change, that will be like a volcano erupting and we will see the lower time frames Phase 1's lasting average to extended I don't expect a Monthly Phase 1 before September, if this is an average Weekly Phase 2, then it likely won't be until November.
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