As I stated in the onset, I do not use defined technical signals or triggers. I use my 30 plus years following the market on a daily basis and I must unintentionally connect some patterns. Not a very scientific way to gauge the markets mood. It is actually the complete opposite from the way I earn a living. I am a programmer/analyst that uses defined analytical skills to develop programs or systems. They have defined rules.
The current pattern suggests a terminal wave. It also suggests a tight very steeply defined one. In fact I would be very surprised if we close on a daily basis more than 10 SPX points lower in any given day.
The Bernanke game was played to perfection. He single handedly broke the tight spread in bond yields and in so doing allowed the banks to capitalize on lending again. The 10 year note, by staying around 2.5 percent is the best possible solution. Not sure how long it stays there but for now it is ideal.
The 4 plus mega move off lows has been so steep that it is hard to think it can go much higher without a 20 percent correction soon. My assumptions from 2 years ago is playing out. I stated that we were in a sweet spot for earnings as the economy muddled along. The final phase would be signs of accelerated improvement. The psychology has turned around completely in past 6 months. Fear is gone from the market.
I state this not really knowing if this bull ends a cyclical or secular move. Originally thought this was the final top. Now I think it is only a cyclical move, followed by a real economic expansion in another year or so. getting ahead of myself.
I believe all the technical resistance points will be taken out in next 2 to 3 days. Today looks like it has started.
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